Decay Forecast ROSAT

From: Harro Zimmer (
Date: Fri Oct 14 2011 - 19:40:00 UTC

  • Next message: Marco Langbroek: "Re: Decay Forecast ROSAT"

    Report time. October 14, 19:00 UTC
    1990- 049A (#20638) ROSAT
    The 2426 kg object was decommissioned
    on February 12, 1999.
    My careful analysis with different methods
    (semi-analytic, Special Perturbation (SP)
    and Orbit evolution) based on the last
    seven ELSETs 11286.225... - 11287.278...
    shows the decay on October 24 +/- 01 days.
    The SP- programs with different atmospheric
    models and the forecasted SFX an AP data for
    the next 12 days show a tendency to the
    late October 25. The Orbit evolution methods
    - see Ted Molczans SATEVO data - looks in the
    direction of October 23.
    It would be interesting to see the tumbling 
    behaviour of the satellite. Is it magnitude 
    really steady as recent observations
    possibly have shown or is the amplitude only
    very small?
    Harro Zimmer  -  Berlin (Germany)
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