RE: First Metop Observation and Prediction of Possible Metop Flares

From: Ciprian Sufitchi (n2yo@radioamator.ro)
Date: Thu Oct 19 2006 - 20:58:00 EDT

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    Hello all,
    
    The satellite METOP-A can now be tracked at N2YO.com. Just follow this link:
    http://www.n2yo.com/?s=29499
    Multi satellite tracking is available too (limit 5 currently for performance
    reasons). The current tracking list can be managed in any satellite details
    page.
    Any feedback is welcome!
    
    73s de Chip N2YO
    
    -----Original Message-----
    From: Gerhard HOLTKAMP [mailto:grd.holtkamp@t-online.de] 
    Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2006 4:52 PM
    To: SeeSat-L@satobs.org
    Subject: First Metop Observation and Prediction of Possible Metop Flares
    
    
    I just had my first glimpse of Metop through a gap in the clouds from my 
    location at 49.8822 N, 8.6558 E, passing Alpha UMa at 19:56:37 UTC, 
    19-OCT-06. This was 5 sec later than predicted with the pre-launch state 
    vector (a delay which was confirmed by a friend of mine at Eumetsat who had 
    access to the telemetry; Metop is on a very good trajectory and so far no 
    technical issues). Metop looked reddish and was about mag 5 which at 22 deg 
    elevation and the phase angle of about 100 deg was to be expected. Metop 
    should be an easy naked eye object at higher passes.
    
    Now that Metop has finally reached orbit we can check whether my theory on 
    Metop flares is correct. Unfortunately due to the many delays you have to be
    
    above 53 deg. North to see flares (and even further North in a week or so or
    
    on the southern hemisphere). I'll have to wait until spring to get my
    chance! 
    
    Here is a first prediction for some possible flare locations on Friday 
    (20-OCT-06). Times are in UTC. These predictions were made with the original
    
    pre-flight state vector so I would expect a delay of maybe half a minute or 
    more for those times. By tomorrow I hope to have accurate orbit data and be 
    able to come up with better predictions. 
    
    For the western outskirts of Moscow try to look at 17:54:25 (or a few
    seconds 
    later depending on the actual orbit).
    
    Rostock, Germany would be at 19:35:26.
    On a line from Nykobing, Denmark at 19:35:41 to Holbaek west of Copenhagen
    at 
    19:36:00.
    In Norway try a line from Larvik at 19:37:08 to Kristiansund at 19:38:32.
    
    In all these cases look toward the North at 36 deg elevation or toward the 
    Northwest at 31 deg (for the higher latitudes).
    These flare would come from the body fixed ASCAT antenna. At about those
    time 
    two more ASCAT antennae will be deployed - maybe one can see some stray 
    flares at other locations.
    
    Gerhard HOLTKAMP
    Darmstadt, Germany
    
    
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