Elements of 05042A & B and 05011B

From: Ted Molczan (seesat@rogers.com)
Date: Mon Oct 31 2005 - 17:47:05 EST

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    I was hoping that USA 186's Titan 2nd stage would be spotted, and Greg Roberts
    seems to have tracked it during a planar search for USA 129, which is in nearly
    the same plane.
    
    The main uncertainty in my search elements is in the mean motion:
    
    USA 186 r        9.8  3.0  0.0  3.0 v                    162 X 899 km
    1 72002U          05303.88490183  .01176087  00000-0  83506-3 0    01
    2 72002  97.8659   6.1332 0532929 146.2634 217.3750 15.10892763    05
    
    I expect the prediction time uncertainty to be 5 to 10 min, 24 h after the
    epoch.
    
    It is interesting to note that USA 129's 2nd stage rocket had a similar mean
    motion at about the same time after its launch as USA 186's:
    
    1 24681U 96072B   96366.58430690  .01220474  00000-0  21871-3 0    38
    2 24681  97.8776  66.9102 0542171 130.8391 233.9879 15.15596164    00	
    
    New observations of USA 186 by Tony Beresford and Greg Roberts confirm its 262
    km perigee, and enable inclusion of all elements in the orbital analysis:
    
    USA 186         15.0  3.0  0.0  5.3 v                   262 X 1046 km
    1 28888U 05042A   05304.47411674  .00011481  00000-0  11949-3 0    06
    2 28888  97.8725   6.2351 0556882 145.9579 217.8706 14.71299916    05
    Arc 2005 Oct 25.82 - 31.53, WRMS residuals = 0.012 deg
    
    Russell's latest observations of 05011B cause the negative decay terms to
    disappear:
    
    XSS-11 r         1.3  1.1  0.0  7.6 v
    1 28637U 05011B   05304.20013760  .00000038  00000-0  21080-4 0    03
    2 28637  98.8493 294.9442 0012099 342.4920  17.5832 14.11042931    00
    Arc 2005 Aug 29.72 - Oct 31.23, WRMS residuals = 0.035 deg
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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