Decay watch: 2003 October 12

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Oct 12 2003 - 13:55:57 EDT

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    OIG is posting decay warnings for three objects at present. The
    following is taken from today's update to my Decay Watch page. Check
    there for further postings and for more details, including further
    predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19348 = 88- 66 E = Cosmos 1961 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Oct 11 23:58     Oct 16 00:12 +-2d        35.2 N    70.3 E
    SatEvo     Oct 12 17:45     Oct 15 23:13 +-1.2d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1961 aux motor                            600 x 135 km
    1 19348U 88066E   03285.47283477  .11537763  87696-5  82157-3 0  1625
    2 19348  46.4570 338.9840 0344210 234.1816 122.6615 15.66976581241562
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23416 = 94- 80 B = DFH-3 1 LM rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Oct 12 09:08     Oct 13 09:27 +-16h       19.0 N    57.0 E
    SatEvo     Oct 12 17:30     Oct 13 12:32 +-7h         2.0 S    54.1 E
    
    Latest elset:
    DFH-3 1 LM r     8.0  2.5  0.0  4.0 v   21       452 x 129 km
    1 23416U 94080B   03285.50279829  .17571446 -91507-5  70191-3 0  2972
    2 23416  27.3308  87.8271 0242510 145.6936 215.9553 15.94172586149598
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    (ends)
    DFH-3 1 LM r     8.0  2.5  0.0  4.0 v   21       268 x 120 km
    1 23416U 94080B   03286.30835205  .31909632  19664+0  50161-3 0 92976
    2 23416  27.3247  81.5772 0112323 156.0571 204.4691 16.29385796149725
    DFH-3 1 LM r     8.0  2.5  0.0  4.0 v   21       194 x 115 km
    1 23416U 94080B   03286.49124925  .56091698  10261+1  46790-3 0 92975
    2 23416  27.3223  80.1043 0060175 158.4996 201.7542 16.44257571149753
    
    Note: My estimate is for this to decay southbound near the Seychelles
    on the final predicted orbit above. There are still several revs of
    uncertainty.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27459 = 02- 34 C = Contour Delta 2 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Oct 12 16:12     Oct 14 16:01 +-4d        23.7 N    63.5 W
    SatEvo     Oct 12 16:50     Not predicted
    
    Latest elset:
    Contour Del r2   3.0  2.0  0.0  6.5 d  2.7       30119 x 93 km
    1 27459U 02034C   03285.33333333  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0  2788
    2 27459  31.4840 156.2219 6987934  34.5876 190.0628  2.75726045    20
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
    
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