Another summary of my updated Decay Watch page, including the first
notice for Cosmos 1154.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #11682 = 80- 8 A = Cosmos 1154
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Oct 30 23:06 Nov 3 18:06 +-2d 55.8 N 173.8 E
SatEvo Oct 31 19:00 Nov 4 22:26 +-1.3d
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1154 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 19 236 x 229 km
1 11682U 80008A 02304.47159851 .01264175 00000-0 94773-3 0 1253
2 11682 81.1832 324.8061 0005703 207.9068 152.2472 16.15295941794077
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 6 deg N in the evening
and leaves eclipse southbound near 68 deg N before dawn.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26482 = 00- 50 B = Zi Yuan 2 Long March 4 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Oct 30 16:27 Nov 1 14:17 +-1d 62.8 N 12.7 W
SatEvo Oct 29 20:00 Nov 1 11:35 +-18h
SatEvo Oct 30 20:10 Nov 1 10:06 +-12h
SatEvo Oct 31 19:10 Nov 1 09:33 +-12h 43.2 N 143.9 W
Latest elset:
Zi Yuan 2 LM4r 6.0 2.0 0.0 4.5 d 13 188 x 175 km
1 26482U 00050B 02304.47595137 .03847669 00000-0 58234-3 0 7139
2 26482 97.3347 45.6565 0010130 276.9152 83.1824 16.34173923122296
SatEvo prediction:
Zi Yuan 2 LM4r 6.0 2.0 0.0 4.5 d 13 176 x 165 km
1 26482U 00050B 02304.84286987 .06839501 31365-1 65990-3 0 97134
2 26482 97.3333 46.0806 0008458 275.3896 84.5139 16.38425050122358
Zi Yuan 2 LM4r 6.0 2.0 0.0 4.5 d 13 167 x 158 km
1 26482U 00050B 02305.02595041 .09344367 67780-1 59128-3 0 97139
2 26482 97.3322 46.2932 0007369 274.6245 85.2912 16.41331043122380
Zi Yuan 2 LM4r 6.0 2.0 0.0 4.5 d 13 148 x 141 km
1 26482U 00050B 02305.26940832 .22033166 48628+0 37286-3 0 97133
2 26482 97.3300 46.5777 0005034 273.6006 86.3418 16.47985210122422
Zi Yuan 2 LM4r 6.0 2.0 0.0 4.5 d 13 138 x 133 km
1 26482U 00050B 02305.33007625 .38224040 17280+1 37106-3 0 97137
2 26482 97.3289 46.6491 0003914 273.3435 86.6117 16.51433296122437
Note: I have this decaying northbound over the NE Pacific on the orbit
following the final SatEvo rev above. Further SCC notices are overdue.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27519 = 02- 42 E = DRTS rocket fairing 1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Oct 29 17:34 Nov 2 08:57 +-2d 30.2 N 64.3 E
SatEvo Oct 31 19:20 Nov 4 02:51 +-1.1d
Latest elset:
DRTS r Fairng1 3.0 3.0 0.0 3.5 v 10 311 x 297 km
1 27519U 02042E 02303.37085756 .02203359 00000-0 61622-2 0 906
2 27519 30.4042 162.4823 0010330 308.3029 51.6872 15.89469390 7793
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27553 = 02- 50 B = Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Oct 31 06:35 Nov 1 06:13 +-16h 45.3 S 101.5 W
SatEvo Oct 31 19:30 Nov 1 02:46 +-4h 0.0 176.8 W
Latest elset:
Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r 186 x 175 km
1 27553U 02050B 02304.53713108 .06659231 00000-0 88944-3 0 142
2 27553 51.6154 88.1793 0007889 81.0430 279.2341 16.34519611 230
SatEvo prediction:
Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r 168 x 160 km
1 27553U 02050B 02304.84223148 .14110357 14833+0 91417-3 0 90142
2 27553 51.6137 86.4602 0005956 82.3275 277.7401 16.40838199 282
Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r 162 x 155 km
1 27553U 02050B 02304.90309708 .17602759 24433+0 87178-3 0 90147
2 27553 51.6132 86.1151 0005402 82.5853 277.4760 16.42750255 297
Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r 155 x 149 km
1 27553U 02050B 02304.96388202 .24023518 49131+0 67908-3 0 90148
2 27553 51.6125 85.7694 0004708 82.8436 277.2099 16.45233759 307
Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r 145 x 140 km
1 27553U 02050B 02305.02455528 .40855132 15957+1 55888-3 0 90149
2 27553 51.6116 85.4229 0003706 83.1026 276.9395 16.48963610 319
Note: I estimate that this will decay near the southbound equator
crossing on the orbit after the final SatEvo-predicted one above,
putting it over the central Pacific.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Oct 31 2002 - 15:08:22 EST