Decay watch: 2002 October 31

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Oct 31 2002 - 14:39:50 EST

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    Another summary of my updated Decay Watch page, including the first 
    notice for Cosmos 1154.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11682 = 80-  8 A = Cosmos 1154
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Oct 30 23:06     Nov  3 18:06 +-2d        55.8 N   173.8 E
    SatEvo     Oct 31 19:00     Nov  4 22:26 +-1.3d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1154      5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   19       236 x 229 km
    1 11682U 80008A   02304.47159851  .01264175  00000-0  94773-3 0  1253
    2 11682  81.1832 324.8061 0005703 207.9068 152.2472 16.15295941794077
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 6 deg N in the evening
    and leaves eclipse southbound near 68 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26482 = 00- 50 B = Zi Yuan 2 Long March 4 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Oct 30 16:27     Nov  1 14:17 +-1d        62.8 N    12.7 W
    
    SatEvo     Oct 29 20:00     Nov  1 11:35 +-18h
    SatEvo     Oct 30 20:10     Nov  1 10:06 +-12h
    SatEvo     Oct 31 19:10     Nov  1 09:33 +-12h       43.2 N   143.9 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Zi Yuan 2 LM4r   6.0  2.0  0.0  4.5 d   13       188 x 175 km
    1 26482U 00050B   02304.47595137  .03847669  00000-0  58234-3 0  7139
    2 26482  97.3347  45.6565 0010130 276.9152  83.1824 16.34173923122296
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Zi Yuan 2 LM4r   6.0  2.0  0.0  4.5 d   13       176 x 165 km
    1 26482U 00050B   02304.84286987  .06839501  31365-1  65990-3 0 97134
    2 26482  97.3333  46.0806 0008458 275.3896  84.5139 16.38425050122358
    Zi Yuan 2 LM4r   6.0  2.0  0.0  4.5 d   13       167 x 158 km
    1 26482U 00050B   02305.02595041  .09344367  67780-1  59128-3 0 97139
    2 26482  97.3322  46.2932 0007369 274.6245  85.2912 16.41331043122380
    Zi Yuan 2 LM4r   6.0  2.0  0.0  4.5 d   13       148 x 141 km
    1 26482U 00050B   02305.26940832  .22033166  48628+0  37286-3 0 97133
    2 26482  97.3300  46.5777 0005034 273.6006  86.3418 16.47985210122422
    Zi Yuan 2 LM4r   6.0  2.0  0.0  4.5 d   13       138 x 133 km
    1 26482U 00050B   02305.33007625  .38224040  17280+1  37106-3 0 97137
    2 26482  97.3289  46.6491 0003914 273.3435  86.6117 16.51433296122437
    
    Note: I have this decaying northbound over the NE Pacific on the orbit
    following the final SatEvo rev above.  Further SCC notices are overdue.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27519 = 02- 42 E = DRTS rocket fairing 1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Oct 29 17:34     Nov  2 08:57 +-2d        30.2 N    64.3 E
    SatEvo     Oct 31 19:20     Nov  4 02:51 +-1.1d
    
    Latest elset:
    DRTS r Fairng1   3.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   10       311 x 297 km
    1 27519U 02042E   02303.37085756  .02203359  00000-0  61622-2 0   906
    2 27519  30.4042 162.4823 0010330 308.3029  51.6872 15.89469390  7793
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27553 = 02- 50 B = Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Oct 31 06:35     Nov  1 06:13 +-16h       45.3 S   101.5 W
    SatEvo     Oct 31 19:30     Nov  1 02:46 +-4h         0.0     176.8 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           186 x 175 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02304.53713108  .06659231  00000-0  88944-3 0   142
    2 27553  51.6154  88.1793 0007889  81.0430 279.2341 16.34519611   230
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           168 x 160 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02304.84223148  .14110357  14833+0  91417-3 0 90142
    2 27553  51.6137  86.4602 0005956  82.3275 277.7401 16.40838199   282
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           162 x 155 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02304.90309708  .17602759  24433+0  87178-3 0 90147
    2 27553  51.6132  86.1151 0005402  82.5853 277.4760 16.42750255   297
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           155 x 149 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02304.96388202  .24023518  49131+0  67908-3 0 90148
    2 27553  51.6125  85.7694 0004708  82.8436 277.2099 16.45233759   307
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           145 x 140 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02305.02455528  .40855132  15957+1  55888-3 0 90149
    2 27553  51.6116  85.4229 0003706  83.1026 276.9395 16.48963610   319
    
    
    Note: I estimate that this will decay near the southbound equator
    crossing on the orbit after the final SatEvo-predicted one above,
    putting it over the central Pacific.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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