Decay watch: 2002 October 30

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Oct 30 2002 - 15:37:57 EST

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    Updated notices from my Decay Watch page, including one for the new 
    Soyuz rocket which, as Mike McCants has already posted, is a morning 
    object over mid-northern latitudes. I'm getting an earlier decay for 
    this than does SCC.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26482 = 00- 50 B = Zi Yuan 2 Long March 4 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Oct 30 16:27     Nov  1 14:17 +-1d        62.8 N    12.7 W
    SatEvo     Oct 30 20:10     Nov  1 10:06 +-12h
    
    Latest elset:
    Zi Yuan 2 LM4r   6.0  2.0  0.0  4.5 d   13       204 x 193 km
    1 26482U 00050B   02303.55550285  .02676987  24320-5  74363-3 0  7074
    2 26482  97.3339  44.6076 0008251 281.4480  78.5884 16.27849600122141
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27519 = 02- 42 E = DRTS rocket fairing 1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Oct 29 17:34     Nov  2 08:57 +-2d        30.2 N    64.3 E
    SatEvo     Oct 30 20:00     Nov  4 07:53 +-1.5d
    
    Latest elset:
    DRTS r Fairng1   3.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   10       311 x 297 km
    1 27519U 02042E   02303.37085756  .02203359  00000-0  61622-2 0   906
    2 27519  30.4042 162.4823 0010330 308.3029  51.6872 15.89469390  7793
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27553 = 02- 50 B = Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Oct 30 12:43     Nov  1 07:51 +-1d        18.2 S    88.7 W
    SatEvo     Oct 30 20:20     Nov  1 02:05 +-1d        10.0 N    22.2 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           219 x 188 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02303.67868513  .03634841  12052-4  10386-2 0    85
    2 27553  51.6253  92.8955 0023688  77.3401 283.0136 16.25914942    98
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           209 x 181 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02304.04706689  .04947248  12333-1  10560-2 0 90083
    2 27553  51.6244  90.8495 0021172  78.8676 281.3704 16.29186507   152
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           200 x 175 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02304.29221533  .06107443  20178-1  10123-2 0 90088
    2 27553  51.6236  89.4821 0019178  79.8886 280.3277 16.31873683   196
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           189 x 167 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02304.53690842  .08071757  33879-1  94519-3 0 90082
    2 27553  51.6226  88.1114 0016739  80.9122 279.2772 16.35303604   239
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           175 x 157 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02304.78099897  .12335385  10616+0  84191-3 0 90084
    2 27553  51.6212  86.7360 0013563  81.9392 278.2146 16.40082099   279
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           155 x 143 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02304.96347217  .25917756  62080+0  52032-3 0 90089
    2 27553  51.6195  85.7001 0009687  82.7129 277.3971 16.46341149   309
    Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz-FG r                           143 x 133 km
    1 27553U 02050B   02305.02409538  .48477414  24981+1  48084-3 0 90080
    2 27553  51.6185  85.3532 0007272  82.9720 277.1107 16.50529945   317
    
    Note: This enters eclipse near southern apex at 52 deg S in the
    evening. Eclipse exit occurs northbound near 37 deg N before dawn.
    I have it decaying just beyond the end of the final SatEvo-predicted
    rev above, northbound over central Africa.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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