Decay watch: 2002 October 23

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Oct 23 2002 - 15:50:24 EDT

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    A list of recent decays and the final report on today's Molniya 3-37 r2
    decay, all taken from my updated Decay Watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
       #    Designation    Name          Estimated actual decay
                                                  2002
    
      5810   68- 97 DD  Cosmos 252 deb         October  6.0
     22378   92- 93 BT  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb  October  6.3
     27094   01- 49 AN  TES PSLV deb           October  8.0
      4619   70- 89 F   Cosmos 374 deb         October  9.1
     24977   94- 29 ACK STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 11.1
     20200   77-121 BX  Cosmos 970 deb         October 11
     27095   01- 49 AP  TES PSLV deb           October 15.7
       211   61- 15 BF  Transit 4A deb         October 17.2
      4850   71-  3 B   Meteor 1-7 r           October 18.45
     10269   77- 65 CW  GMS 1 Delta deb        October 19.4
     21376   75- 52 CW  Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb   October 19.7
     27275   01- 49 HX  TES PSLV deb           October 21
      9727   72- 58 HT  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb  October 21.8
     20446   90-  6 C   Molniya 3-37 r2        October 23.12
      9711   75-  4 GV  Landsat 2 Delta 1 deb  October 23.1
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #20446 = 90-  6 C = Molniya 3-37 r2
    Third stage (Block ML) from the Russian Molniya 8K78M (SL-6)
    rocket used to launch the Molniya 3-37 communications satellite
    on January 23, 1990.
    (Diameter : 2.4 m   Length : 3.2 m   Mass : 1200 kg)
    
    Notice prepared: 2002 Oct 23 19:15 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Oct 19 19:02     Oct 23 01:14 +-2d        26.9 S   172.6 E
    SpaceCom   Oct 20 06:09     Oct 23 01:38 +-2d        53.1 S    73.2 W
    SpaceCom   Oct 21 01:36     Oct 23 01:42 +-1d        38.7 S    54.7 W
    SpaceCom   Oct 22 02:04     Oct 23 01:48 +-14h       15.8 S    40.1 W
    SpaceCom   Oct 22 11:59     Oct 23 00:09 +-8h        40.4 S    32.8 W
    SpaceCom   Oct 22 19:09     Oct 22 22:40 +-2h        39.0 S     9.0 W
    SpaceCom   Oct 22 23:00     Oct 23 01:20 +-2h        54.0 S   158.5 W
    SpaceCom   Oct 23 04:37     Oct 23 01:20 +-2h        54.0 S   158.4 W
    
    SatEvo     Oct 20 10:45     Oct 23 02:51 +-1d
    SatEvo     Oct 21 21:50     Oct 23 06:05 +-12h
    SatEvo     Oct 22 19:50     Oct 23 01:30 +-3h        53.1 S    71.8 W
    SatEvo     Oct 23 19:15     Oct 23 02:51 +-2h        61.7 S   152.3 W
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 3-37 r2                                  408 x 84 km
    1 20446U 90006C   02295.91921296  .86918444  85878-5  39185-3 0  8531
    2 20446  62.2832  26.5861 0244701 269.8893 265.0538 16.10437143102510
    
    Note: I think this is most likely to have decayed close to southern
    apex over the far southern Pacific on the SatEvo-predicted rev:
    Molniya 3-37 r2                                  251 x 79 km
    1 20446U 90006C   02296.07408851 1.68389142  53904+1  41602-3 0 98484
    2 20446  62.2963  25.9097 0131197 266.9598  91.5382 16.40392363102542
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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