Decay watch: 2002 October 17

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Oct 17 2002 - 14:35:02 EDT

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     From my updated Decay Watch page...
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #4850 = 71-  3 B = Meteor 1-7 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 17 11:51     Oct 18 12:16 +-15h        9.3 N   146.8 W
    SatEvo     Oct 17 18:15     Oct 18 10:16 +-5h        48.7 N    74.2 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Meteor 1-7 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   12       180 x 170 km
    1 04850U 71003B   02290.62805983  .03976524  00000-0  47246-3 0  1233
    2 04850  81.1102 245.8716 0007236 271.7499  88.3744 16.36547010733103
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Meteor 1-7 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   12       175 x 166 km
    1 04850U 71003B   02290.75024434  .05976142  22993-1  59188-3 0 91232
    2 04850  81.1097 245.7003 0006826 271.2619  88.6599 16.38215959733126
    Meteor 1-7 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   12       162 x 155 km
    1 04850U 71003B   02291.05527396  .09633833  69694-1  45989-3 0 91235
    2 04850  81.1082 245.2710 0005529 270.0389  89.8977 16.42768736733179
    Meteor 1-7 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   12       142 x 138 km
    1 04850U 71003B   02291.29849355  .24214345  64494+0  30629-3 0 91239
    2 04850  81.1057 244.9259 0003661 269.0563  90.9018 16.49785081733215
    Meteor 1-7 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   12       131 x 128 km
    1 04850U 71003B   02291.35908568  .48346968  36177+1  33251-3 0 91233
    2 04850  81.1043 244.8392 0002682 268.8095  91.1598 16.53794704733220
    
    Note: The final SatEvo-predicted rev above has this tracking southbound
    over N America, passing: E of Calgary, Alberta, at 09:08 UTC; near
    Billings, Montana, at 09:09; Denver, Colorado, at 09:11; and Roswell,
    New Mexico, at 09:13. I have the decay northbound over Kazakhstan on
    the orbit after this, though SpaceCom and Harro Zimmer both put the
    decay more than another orbit later. My uncertainty is still several
    orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Oct 17 2002 - 14:44:38 EDT