SatEvo decay list #107

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Oct 28 2000 - 13:40:36 PDT

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Decay watch: 2000 Oct 28"

    SatEvo decay list #107  (issued 2000 October 28)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 December 25, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,300 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     18984   88-  6 F   DMSP F9 deb                     October  5.6
     25129   97- 86 D   Asiasat 3 r2                    October  7.14
     25547   98- 68 B   Bonum Delta 2 r                 October  7.21
     26138   99- 57 AA  CBERS LM4 deb                   October  7.2
     21829   91- 87 F   Raduga 28 aux motor             October  8.40
     26542   00- 56 E   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb           October  8.9
     23954   96- 41 B   GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1             October  8.97
     25234   98- 12 B   Teledesic 1                     October  9.17
     26541   00- 56 D   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb           October 10.1
     23971   94- 29 R   STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 10.3
     26543   00- 56 F   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb           October 11.2
     26539   00- 56 B   Cosmos 2372 Zenit r             October 11.75  Note 3
      7967   72- 58 CT  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb           October 11.9
     26567   00- 63 D   Cosmos 2374 Proton casing       October 14.02  Note 4
     26408   00- 40 B   GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1             October 14.32
     26540   00- 56 C   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb           October 14.4
     26568   00- 63 E   Cosmos 2374 Proton r            October 14?
     26425   99- 57 JW  CBERS LM4 deb                   October 16.6   Note 1
     23632   95- 39 A   Interbol 1                      October 16.58  Note 2
     26571   00- 64 B   Progress M-43 Soyuz r           October 18.33
     24249   94- 29 LY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 19.1
     23107   93- 61 J   Spot 3 Ariane deb               October 19.8
     23817   96- 15 B   Intelsat 707 Ariane r           October 19.6
      4930   70- 25 FW  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb               October 20.1
     25390   98- 42 B   Tubsat N1                       October 21.43
     25305   94- 29 ADK STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 21
      4325   69- 82 DY  Thorad Agena D deb              October 21.7
     26582   00- 67 C   GE-6 Proton casing              October 22.50
     24566   94- 29 XS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 22.5   Note 1
     26144   99- 57 AG  CBERS LM4 deb                   October 22.8
     26581   00- 67 B   GE-6 Proton r                   October 23.49
     24100   94- 29 EX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb              October 24
     23549   95- 18 A   Ofeq 3                          October 24.71
     26584   95-  8 N   Cosmos 2306 deb                 October 25.7
     25031   97- 67 B   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r1             October 25.84
     26133   99- 57 V   CBERS LM4 deb                   October 26.2   Note 1
     26589   95-  8 T   Cosmos 2306 deb                 October 27.3   Note 1
     26588   95-  8 S   Cosmos 2306 deb                 October 27.5   Note 1
     26586   95-  8 Q   Cosmos 2306 deb                 October 27.6   Note 1
     26587   95-  8 R   Cosmos 2306 deb                 October 27.7   Note 1
     13759   81- 53 GR  Cosmos 1275 deb                 October 28.0
      1937   65-112 Q   Cosmos 103 SL-8 deb             October 28.2
     17208   86- 19 BL  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb    October 28
     26585   95-  8 P   Cosmos 2306 deb        October 28
     22384   92- 93 BZ  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb  October 30
     23501   95-  8 A   Cosmos 2306            October 30
     26438   99- 57 KK  CBERS LM4 deb         November  1
     26572   98- 67 E   ISS deb               November  2
     15781   80- 30 AX  Cosmos 1174 deb       November  4
     24258   94- 29 MH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  4
     26167   99- 57 BD  CBERS LM4 deb         November  5
      5077   70- 89 AQ  Cosmos 374 deb        November  7
     16311   79- 17 CA  Solwind deb           November  7
     25069   97- 75 C   JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r  November  7
     26431   99- 57 KC  CBERS LM4 deb         November  7
     26206   99- 57 CU  CBERS LM4 deb         November 10
      8979   75-  4 BM  Landsat 4 Delta 1 deb November 12
     20255   89- 78 A   Molniya 1-76          November 12
     24116   94- 29 FP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 13
     25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2   November 13
     26340   99- 57 HZ  CBERS LM4 deb         November 13
     26274   99- 57 FL  CBERS LM4 deb         November 14
      2167   66- 34 B   OV 3-1 r              November 15
     26170   99- 57 BG  CBERS LM4 deb         November 15
     20896   90- 81 BG  FY-1B CZ deb          November 16
     18963   63- 14 DP  Westford Needles deb  November 17?
      3492   65- 82 QN  OV2-1/LCS2 deb        November 19
     21802   91- 62 H   Solar A r deb         November 19
     17726   71- 15 DD  Cosmos 397 deb        November 21
     10212   77- 65 AR  GMS 1 Delta deb       November 24
     24117   94- 29 FQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November 27
     22067   92- 47 H   C 2204 Proton r2      December  1
     26455   99- 57 LA  CBERS LM4 deb         December  1
     24164   94- 29 HP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December  3
     22380   92- 93 BV  C 2227 Zenit deb      December  4
      4625   70- 91 E   Cosmos 375 deb        December  5
     19830   78-100 AN  C 1045 SL-14 deb      December  6
     24743   97-  9 B   Intelsat 801 Ariane r December  6
     25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79            December  6
      8577   70- 89 AQ  Cosmos 374 deb        December  7
     15538   71- 15 CV  Cosmos 397 deb        December  7
      4618   70- 89 E   Cosmos 374 deb        December  8
     26171   99- 57 BH  CBERS LM4 deb         December  8
     26164   99- 57 BA  CBERS LM4 deb         December  9
     21334   75- 52 BC  Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb  December 10
     22373   92- 93 BN  C 2227 Zenit deb      December 10
     26190   99- 57 CC  CBERS LM4 deb         December 11
     24089   94- 29 EL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 12
      4392   70- 34 B   Mao 1 CZ-1 r          December 13
     25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r          December 13
     25422   98- 46 K   Orbcomm 13 Peg r2     December 14
     24140   94- 29 GP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 16
     16243   85-105 D   Cosmos 1701 r2        December 17?
     18719   87-109 E   Ekran 17 aux motor    December 17
     23824   96- 10 E   Raduga 33 aux motor   December 19?
     16480   79- 17 FE  Solwind deb           December 20
     17628   81- 53 LA  Cosmos 1275 deb       December 20
     22925   93- 72 E   Gorizont 29 aux mot   December 20
     26051   93-  9 D   OXP 1 Pegasus deb     December 22
     23854   96- 25 B   Cosmos 2332 r     2001 January  1
      4584   70- 85 B   Meteor 1-6 r      2001 January  3
     24745   97- 10 B   Zeya r            2001 January  4
     14520   83-114 D   Molniya 1-59 r2   2001 January
     16110   85- 90 A   Cosmos 1689       2001 January
     25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85        2001 January
     16112   85- 91 A   Molniya 3-26     2001 February
     16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2  2001 February
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    2. #23632 = Interbol 1. Again, thanks to Vladimir Agapov for alerting
    me to the decay of this highly eccentric object. The perigee was driven down
    strongly by luni-solar effects and Interbol 1 plunged into the atmosphere on
    October 16. My calculations show it falling steeply to an altitude of 80 km
    near 11.6 deg S, 0.2 deg W, at 14:01:26 UTC on that date. Vladimir reports
    that calculations at the KAIM Ballistic Center give the decay at 14:03:33
    UTC at 10.9835 deg S, 0.18 deg E.
    
    3. The re-entry of #26539 (Cosmos 2372 Zenit rocket) was observed from an
    aircraft in the vicinity of Maseru, Lesotho, as a long-duration fragmenting
    fireball at very low elevation between the NNE and ESE.
    
    4. The re-entry of #26567 (Cosmos 2374 Proton casing or "platform") was
    observed as it passed over Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas - the decay time given
    is that of the observation. It appears that pieces of debris from the object
    have been discovered in a field in Kansas. SpaceCom's claim that the
    fireball came from the Orionids meteor shower is nonsense - at the time of
    the re-entry the Orionids radiant was some 40 deg _below_ the local NNE
    horizon. 
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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