Decay watch: 2000 Oct 24

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Oct 24 2000 - 12:39:47 PDT

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    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23549 = 95- 18 A = Ofeq 3
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 24 15:18     Oct 24 17:17 +-5h        23.1 N    93.6 W
    SatEvo     Oct 24 19:10     Oct 25 17:05 +-2h        32.5 N    69.1 W
    
    Latest (final?) elset:
    Ofeq 3           1.0  0.0  0.0  6.3 v  1.5       201 x 196 km
    1 23549U 95018A   00298.32608896  .11295348 -18755-4  28427-2 0   997
    2 23549 143.3030 339.6867 0003203 199.7929 160.2679 16.27807830309279
    
    Note: I show this decaying over the W Atlantic just before it would 
    have passed over Orlando, Florida, at 17:08 UTC, thence over the 
    Gulf of Mexica towards Mexico City at 17:12. SpaceCom's final report
    has not yet appeared but the previous one predicted the decay over
    the Gulf on the same pass.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25031 = 97- 67 B = GPS II Delta 2 r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 23 23:58     Oct 26 00:20 +-1d        28.0 N   161.2 W
    SatEvo     Oct 24 19:30     Oct 25 18:27 +-7h        25.8 N    66.0 W
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS II r         5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   14       207 x 189 km
    1 25031U 97067B   00298.46525165  .03608581  16163-5  87192-3 0  7770
    2 25031  35.1754 117.8930 0013176 314.8485  45.3851 16.28025760166408
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ..(ends)
    GPS II r         5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   14       146 x 140 km
    1 25031U 97067B   00299.68637702  .37224827  15287+1  54520-3 0 97779
    2 25031  35.1710 108.8650 0004668 327.7750  32.1964 16.48611954166602
    GPS II r         5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   14       125 x 122 km
    1 25031U 97067B   00299.74681298 1.26647660  31900+2  53479-3 0 97771
    2 25031  35.1695 108.4073 0002422 328.4304  31.5550 16.56214601166610
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while southbound near 10 deg S in the evening 
    and leaves eclipse while northbound near 11 deg S before dawn. The
    latest elset shows this running 19 sec late against yesterday's
    prediction. My current decay estimate puts it northbound over the
    W Atlantic.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Oct 24 2000 - 12:40:46 PDT