Decay watch: 2000 Oct 23

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Oct 23 2000 - 13:09:58 PDT

  • Next message: Matson, Robert: "Ofeq 3 decay watch"

    I'm sorry that I have been unable to post my usual Decay Watch notes for
    a couple of days. As you know from other messages on SeeSat, the re-
    entry of the GE-6 Proton rocket was undoubtedly observed earlier today
    from Australia. I have (at last) updated my Decay Watch page of which
    the following is abstracted...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23549 = 95- 18 A = Ofeq 3
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 23 06:12     Oct 24 00:08 +-1d        18.1 N    75.6 W
    SatEvo     Oct 23 18:50     Oct 25 02:54 +-10h
    
    Latest elset:
    Ofeq 3           1.0  0.0  0.0  6.3 v  1.5       241 x 220 km
    1 23549U 95018A   00297.33982414  .02714808  17531-1  23496-2 0   926
    2 23549 143.2810 332.6677 0015930 295.9956  63.9179 16.16056984309116
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25031 = 97- 67 B = GPS II r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 22 08:34     Oct 25 04:16 +-2d        32.8 S    98.4 W
    
    SatEvo     Oct 23 19:55     Oct 25 12:47 +-10h
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS II r         5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   14       221 x 202 km
    1 25031U 97067B   00297.66682088  .02495369  15657-5  92464-3 0  7715
    2 25031  35.1769 123.7244 0014394 312.9905  46.9685 16.23112443166274
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while southbound near 10 deg S in the evening 
    and leaves eclipse while northbound near 11 deg S before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26581 = 00- 67 B = GE-6 Proton r
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 23 11:56     Oct 23 11:27 +-9m        44.1 S    28.0 E
    SatEvo     Oct 23 19:15     Oct 23 11:40 +-15m       37.9 S   115.9 E
    
    Final elset:
    GE-6 Proton r                                    148 x 110 km
    1 26581U 00067B   00297.43433159  .26579734  12897-4  12134-3 0   130
    2 26581  51.5555   1.3207 0029624 282.4516  77.2827 16.53908554   250
    
    Note: This re-entry was observed from Australia as it followed a path
    from the vicinity of Esperance at ~11:42 UTC to pass E of the Giles 
    Meteorological station ( 25S, 128E). This is a little beyond my 
    SatEvo-predicted point, but consistent with my analysis which 
    suggested that there was a chance that this might even survive until
    the following northbound equator crossing near 150.6 E at 11:52
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26582 = 00- 67 C = GE-6 Proton casing (aka "platform")
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 22 13:14     Oct 22 11:49 +-16m        6.3 N    25.2 W
    SatEvo     Oct 23 18:55     Oct 22 12:04 +-30m       51.0 S    50.7 E
    
    Final elset:
    GE-6 Proton casing                               167 x 148 km
    1 26582U 00067C   00296.39845010  .32175407  12524-4  11085-2 0    44
    2 26582  51.5805   7.2302 0014341 279.6054  80.3364 16.43117448    80
    
    Note: I show this decaying over the SE Indian Ocean on the approach 
    to southern apex and perigee on the following SatEvo-predicted
    rev:
    GE-6 Proton casing                               136 x 126 km
    1 26582U 00067C   00296.45909029 1.57669141  46922+2  10207-2 0 90043
    2 26582  51.5780   6.8832 0007793 279.8653  80.0467 16.53234918    90
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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