Decay watch: 2000 Oct 19

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Oct 19 2000 - 15:15:25 PDT

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    From the latest update to my decay Watch page...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23817 = 96- 15 B = Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 19 17:01     Oct 19 17:33 +-11h        2.3 N   163.2 E
    SatEvo     Oct 19 22:05     Oct 19 13:56 +-11h        4.8 N   164.6 W
    
    Latest (final?) elsets:
    Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 r                     1375 x 120 km
    1 23817U 96015B   00291.91393519  .22685171 -23255-4  11209-2 0  6934
    2 23817   6.8569 308.8720 0880768  89.7897 313.1205 14.43355131 57085
    Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 r                     1071 x 101 km
    1 23817U 96015B   00293.00037037  .06788572 -26082-4  11619-3 0  6956
    2 23817   6.8569 301.1479 0696239 104.5011 295.4445 14.93775875 57235
    
    Note: The latest elset shows the rocket running 14 minutes late against
    yesterday's prediction but, in my view, is very suspect. It is unlikely
    that the drag, the mean motion, and the perigee height are as low as
    implied by this elset. My analysis is based entirely on earlier elsets.
    I show the decay over the central Pacific on the SatEvo predicted orbit:
    Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 r                     320 x 101 km
    1 23817U 96015B   00293.55777469 2.16511375  10320+2  16409-2 0 96936
    2 23817   6.8476 296.4914 0166345 114.2851 247.4612 16.23260980 57337
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25390 = 98- 42 B = Tubsat N1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 19 17:45     Oct 21 16:08 +-1d        30.1 N    91.5 E
    SatEvo     Oct 19 21:40     Oct 21 11:03 +-9h
    
    Latest elset:
    Tubsat N1        0.5  0.5  0.0  9.0 d 0.46       234 x 206 km
    1 25390U 98042B   00293.74115565  .03072917 -28182-6  15791-2 0  8261
    2 25390  78.8588 192.5191 0021163  65.8514 294.4975 16.19817267126800
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 14 sec early against 
    yesterday's prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Oct 19 2000 - 15:17:01 PDT