From the latest update to my decay Watch page...
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23817 = 96- 15 B = Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 19 17:01 Oct 19 17:33 +-11h 2.3 N 163.2 E
SatEvo Oct 19 22:05 Oct 19 13:56 +-11h 4.8 N 164.6 W
Latest (final?) elsets:
Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 r 1375 x 120 km
1 23817U 96015B 00291.91393519 .22685171 -23255-4 11209-2 0 6934
2 23817 6.8569 308.8720 0880768 89.7897 313.1205 14.43355131 57085
Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 r 1071 x 101 km
1 23817U 96015B 00293.00037037 .06788572 -26082-4 11619-3 0 6956
2 23817 6.8569 301.1479 0696239 104.5011 295.4445 14.93775875 57235
Note: The latest elset shows the rocket running 14 minutes late against
yesterday's prediction but, in my view, is very suspect. It is unlikely
that the drag, the mean motion, and the perigee height are as low as
implied by this elset. My analysis is based entirely on earlier elsets.
I show the decay over the central Pacific on the SatEvo predicted orbit:
Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 r 320 x 101 km
1 23817U 96015B 00293.55777469 2.16511375 10320+2 16409-2 0 96936
2 23817 6.8476 296.4914 0166345 114.2851 247.4612 16.23260980 57337
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Object: #25390 = 98- 42 B = Tubsat N1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 19 17:45 Oct 21 16:08 +-1d 30.1 N 91.5 E
SatEvo Oct 19 21:40 Oct 21 11:03 +-9h
Latest elset:
Tubsat N1 0.5 0.5 0.0 9.0 d 0.46 234 x 206 km
1 25390U 98042B 00293.74115565 .03072917 -28182-6 15791-2 0 8261
2 25390 78.8588 192.5191 0021163 65.8514 294.4975 16.19817267126800
Note: The latest elset shows this running 14 sec early against
yesterday's prediction.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Oct 19 2000 - 15:17:01 PDT