My computer disk problem is not yet fixed but I'm managing to keep
afloat. Here is a summary of today's update to my Decay Watch page..
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23817 = 96- 15 B = Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 17 02:40 Oct 19 02:05 +-1d 2.7 S 140.4 W
SatEvo Oct 18 19:55 Oct 19 13:56 +-11h 4.8 N 165.8 W
Latest elset:
Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 r 1377 x 120 km
1 23817U 96015B 00291.90763766 .22661900 -23241-4 11194-2 0 6918
2 23817 6.8552 308.9204 0881982 89.7077 280.3953 14.43074073 57082
SatEvo prediction:
..(ends)
Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 r 431 x 104 km
1 23817U 96015B 00293.49609475 1.35492024 21921+1 14428-2 0 96914
2 23817 6.8471 297.0339 0246233 113.2257 249.3858 16.02517666 57329
Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 r 321 x 101 km
1 23817U 96015B 00293.55779655 2.15804075 10205+2 16384-2 0 96918
2 23817 6.8460 296.4970 0166787 114.2881 247.4629 16.23149271 57332
Note: The latest elset, already 22 hours old, shows this decayer
running 39 sec early against the prediction I posted two days ago.
My decay estimate places it northbound over the central Pacific, but
the prediction is very uncertain.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25390 = 98- 42 B = Tubsat N1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 18 17:32 Oct 20 19:29 +-1d 26.0 N 44.9 E
SatEvo Oct 18 20:05 Oct 21 12:33 +-16h
Latest elset:
Tubsat N1 0.5 0.5 0.0 9.0 d 0.46 253 x 219 km
1 25390U 98042B 00292.68905933 .02632915 -28238-6 20578-2 0 8179
2 25390 78.8658 194.3121 0025756 67.9752 292.6627 16.13885489126630
Note: The latest elset shows this running 3 sec late against the
SatEvo prediction I made 2 days ago.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26571 = 00- 64 B = Progress M-43 Soyuz rocket
Final decay analysis:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 18 08:18 Oct 18 08:04 +-32m 46.4 S 78.1 E
SatEvo Oct 18 21:25 Oct 18 07:53 +-20m 28.4 S 49.2 E
Final elset:
Progress M-43 Soyuz r 149 x 139 km
1 26571U 00064B 00292.23161284 .27501613 12690-4 40236-3 0 199
2 26571 51.6393 349.9339 0008030 61.5628 298.6131 16.48221985 229
Note: the final elset shows this running 28 sec early against
yesterday's prediction. I put the decay over the SW Indian Ocean,
just after passing southbound over Madagascar on the following SatEvo-
predicted orbit:
Progress M-43 Soyuz r 130 x 124 km
1 26571U 00064B 00292.29211522 .86431835 13896+2 46419-3 0 90193
2 26571 51.6376 349.5865 0004670 61.8219 298.2253 16.54686052 234
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Oct 18 2000 - 13:38:28 PDT