Decay watch: 2000 Oct 18

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Oct 18 2000 - 13:35:44 PDT

  • Next message: Russell: "OCT18.OBS"

    My computer disk problem is not yet fixed but I'm managing to keep
    afloat. Here is a summary of today's update to my Decay Watch page..
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23817 = 96- 15 B = Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 17 02:40     Oct 19 02:05 +-1d         2.7 S   140.4 W
    SatEvo     Oct 18 19:55     Oct 19 13:56 +-11h        4.8 N   165.8 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 r                     1377 x 120 km
    1 23817U 96015B   00291.90763766  .22661900 -23241-4  11194-2 0  6918
    2 23817   6.8552 308.9204 0881982  89.7077 280.3953 14.43074073 57082
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ..(ends)
    Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 r                     431 x 104 km
    1 23817U 96015B   00293.49609475 1.35492024  21921+1  14428-2 0 96914
    2 23817   6.8471 297.0339 0246233 113.2257 249.3858 16.02517666 57329
    Intelsat 707 Ariane 44LP+3 r                     321 x 101 km
    1 23817U 96015B   00293.55779655 2.15804075  10205+2  16384-2 0 96918
    2 23817   6.8460 296.4970 0166787 114.2881 247.4629 16.23149271 57332
    
    Note: The latest elset, already 22 hours old, shows this decayer
    running 39 sec early against the prediction I posted two days ago.
    My decay estimate places it northbound over the central Pacific, but
    the prediction is very uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25390 = 98- 42 B = Tubsat N1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 18 17:32     Oct 20 19:29 +-1d        26.0 N    44.9 E
    SatEvo     Oct 18 20:05     Oct 21 12:33 +-16h
    
    Latest elset:
    Tubsat N1        0.5  0.5  0.0  9.0 d 0.46       253 x 219 km
    1 25390U 98042B   00292.68905933  .02632915 -28238-6  20578-2 0  8179
    2 25390  78.8658 194.3121 0025756  67.9752 292.6627 16.13885489126630
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 3 sec late against the 
    SatEvo prediction I made 2 days ago.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26571 = 00- 64 B = Progress M-43 Soyuz rocket
    
    Final decay analysis:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 18 08:18     Oct 18 08:04 +-32m       46.4 S    78.1 E
    SatEvo     Oct 18 21:25     Oct 18 07:53 +-20m       28.4 S    49.2 E
    
    Final elset:
    Progress M-43 Soyuz r                            149 x 139 km
    1 26571U 00064B   00292.23161284  .27501613  12690-4  40236-3 0   199
    2 26571  51.6393 349.9339 0008030  61.5628 298.6131 16.48221985   229
    
    Note: the final elset shows this running 28 sec early against 
    yesterday's prediction. I put the decay over the SW Indian Ocean,
    just after passing southbound over Madagascar on the following SatEvo-
    predicted orbit:
    Progress M-43 Soyuz r                            130 x 124 km
    1 26571U 00064B   00292.29211522  .86431835  13896+2  46419-3 0 90193
    2 26571  51.6376 349.5865 0004670  61.8219 298.2253 16.54686052   234
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Oct 18 2000 - 13:38:28 PDT