Decay watch: 2000 Oct 12

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Oct 12 2000 - 12:22:47 PDT

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    An interesting report of what may well have been the #26539 re-entry
    (see below). Also see my Decay Watch page for predictions for #26408.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26408 = 00- 40 B = GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 12 06:17     Oct 14 06:22 +-1d        14.9 N   102.0 E
    SatEvo     Oct 12 18:25     Oct 14 10:47 +-12h
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1                              351 x 149 km
    1 26408U 00040B   00286.51380792  .04894750  00000-0  65745-3 0  1714
    2 26408  37.5472  72.2075 0152090 153.2961 207.6283 16.08785648 13215
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 5 sec late against 
    yesterday's prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26539 = 00- 56 B = Cosmos 2372 Zenit rocket
    
    Decay predictions (the final SpaceCom notice has appeared):
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct 11 22:07     Oct 11 17:59 +-20m       13.8 S    29.3 E
    SatEvo     Oct 11 21:55     Oct 11 17:52 -15m+30m     0.0      23.6 E
    
    Final elset:
    C 2372 Zenit r                                   126 x 121 km
    1 26539U 00056B   00285.71514216  .27748751  78275-5  13055-3 0   698
    2 26539  64.7702 132.4183 0003974  14.4939 347.8732 16.56047801  2631
    
    Note: The revised final elset shows this 101 sec early against the
    prediction I posted on the 10th. I have not revised by final estimate
    for the decay to have been near a southbound equator crossing over
    central Africa. SpaceCom's final estimate puts it further S. In fact, 
    I have received a report via Claire Flanagan of the Johannesburg
    Planetarium in South Africa of a sighting of a possible re-entry by a
    pilot at 33,000 ft over Maseru, Lesotho, between 17:50 and 18:00 UTC.
    The object concerned was in view for "3 to 5 minutes" (unsure) and was 
    seen to the NNE..."looked like something burning up, never seen anything
    like it before". I am reasonably convinced that this was indeed the re-
    entering #26539, though obviously a little further S even than
    SpaceCom's estimate - Maseru is at 29.3 S, 27.5 E.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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