Decay watch: 2000 Oct 9

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Oct 09 2000 - 12:59:28 PDT

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    A summary of today's Decay Watch page update...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23954 = 96- 41 B = GPS 2-26 r1
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  9 08:20     Oct  8 23:43 +-2h        20.8 S   148.4 W
    SatEvo     Oct  9 17:50     Oct  8 23:17 +-50m       28.5 N   135.2 E
    
    Final elset:
    GPS 2-26 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       146 x 145 km
    1 23954U 96041B   00282.85416667  .15183561  16997-5  29171-3 0  9178
    2 23954  35.2246  13.0144 0000980 259.1576 253.7847 16.47617327236766
    
    Note: The final elset shows this 3 sec early against yesterday's
    prediction. This could have dropped almost anywhere around its orbit
    but my estimates nominal decay time places it southbound over the
    W Pacific to the S of Japan. SpaceCom's decay point puts it further
    along on the same southbound pass over the Pacific. My predicted
    elset for the final rev:
    GPS 2-26 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       121 x 120 km
    1 23954U 96041B   00282.94932856  .86655279  12719+2  32684-3 0 99175
    2 23954  35.2224  12.2939 0000815 260.1881  99.8026 16.57027224236785
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25234 = 98- 12 B = Teledesic 1
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  9 06:41     Oct  9 03:10 +-1m        79.0 S   177.8 W
    SatEvo     Oct  9 18:50     Oct  9 03:58 +-30m       42.9 N    47.1 W
    
    Final elset:
    Teledesic 1      2.0  0.0  0.0  7.0 d  2.7       148 x 134 km
    1 25234U 98012B   00283.14233616  .20541947  28129-5  24641-3 0  9725
    2 25234  97.6268 203.3072 0010908 126.2190 233.9839 16.49480417145058
    
    Note: The final elset, with epoch at 03:25 UTC, is at odds with
    SpaceCom's estimate for decay at 03:10 with an uncertainty of only
    1 minute. I suspect that the elset underestimates the drag and, 
    probably, the mean motion at that time.  Decay certainly occurred
    on that rev, possibly southbound over the NW Atlantic.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26539 = 00- 56 B = Cosmos 2372 Zenit rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  7 10:49     Oct  9 11:28 +-1d         8.0 S   135.5 E
    SatEvo     Oct  9 19:45     Oct 12 05:14 +-15h
    
    Latest elset:
    C 2372 Zenit r                                   223 x 175 km
    1 26539U 00056B   00283.57520795  .01956966  75198-5  44352-3 0   538
    2 26539  64.7787 140.6844 0036716  60.1217 300.3299 16.27574058  2286
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this 1.3 sec early against yesterday's
    prediction. We are already beyond SpaceCom's predicted decay time
    but I show it with some two days yet to go.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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