A summary of today's update of my Decay Watch page...
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #21829 = 91- 87 F = Raduga 28 aux motor
Decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 8 10:48 Oct 8 09:45 +-19m 16.8 S 105.8 E
SatEvo Oct 8 16:50 Oct 8 09:40 +-3h 0.0 90.8 E
Final (so far) elset:
Raduga 28 aux motor 448 x 117 km
1 21829U 91087F 00281.87537775 .27945870 73772-5 58408-3 0 9527
2 21829 46.3549 75.0480 0248474 167.3912 193.3450 15.97024996154767
Note: Three elsets have appeared for the epoch 00281.87 rev, but nothing
more recent that would back up the 19 min uncertainty in SpaceCom's
final analysis. The elset listed above shows this running 4 sec early
against my final prediction, but this is not too surprising since my
analysis had included an elset only two revs earlier. I show this
decaying near a southbound equator crossing over the NE Indian Ocean on
the second of these SatEvo-predicted orbits:
Raduga 28 aux motor 241 x 110 km
1 21829U 91087F 00282.30871832 .89141383 24921+1 80065-3 0 99526
2 21829 46.3444 72.4237 0099914 170.0188 190.1810 16.36225760154830
Raduga 28 aux motor 155 x 105 km
1 21829U 91087F 00282.36948919 3.44008753 50000+2 14263-2 0 99524
2 21829 46.3409 72.0397 0038268 170.4034 189.6699 16.53501705154847
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23954 = 96- 41 B = GPS 2-26 r1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 8 13:40 Oct 8 17:29 +-2h 33.6 N 154.3 W
SatEvo Oct 8 17:35 Oct 8 23:52 +-2h 35.4 S 95.2 W
SatEvo prediction:
...(ends)
GPS 2-26 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 v 13 142 x 139 km
1 23954U 96041B 00282.88901896 .28378756 76264+0 35525-3 0 99154
2 23954 35.2213 12.7652 0001998 27.2440 332.7663 16.49644826236775
GPS 2-26 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 v 13 129 x 127 km
1 23954U 96041B 00282.94945127 .51926758 18210+1 29432-3 0 99151
2 23954 35.2204 12.3079 0001410 27.8982 332.1092 16.54278358236780
Note: The latest elset shows this 101 sec late against yesterday's
prediction. The decay has continued to slip and I now show it as it
tracks eastwards over the SE Pacific on the second of these SatEvo-
predicted revs.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25234 = 98- 12 B = Teledesic 1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 8 03:53 Oct 8 23:34 +-13h 65.2 N 30.1 E
SatEvo Oct 8 17:55 Oct 9 01:57 +-3h 0.0 155.9 E
SatEvo prediction:
... (ends)
Teledesic 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 d 2.7 163 x 159 km
1 25234U 98012B 00282.95994685 .28088789 56997+0 17751-2 0 99653
2 25234 97.6305 203.0834 0002921 147.5548 212.4631 16.41943165145038
Teledesic 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 d 2.7 151 x 148 km
1 25234U 98012B 00283.02081835 .48450826 18645+1 11691-2 0 99659
2 25234 97.6293 203.1574 0002300 147.3008 212.7134 16.46350039145045
Note: The latest elset has this 35 sec late against yesterday's
prediction. I now estimate that this will decay near a northbound
equator crossing over Melanesia, to the NE of Australia, at the
end of the final predicted rev.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26408 = 00- 40 B = GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 5 13:24 Oct 12 12:21 +-4d 1.0 S 47.5 E
SatEvo Oct 8 17:45 Oct 15 01:00 +-2d
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26539 = 00- 56 B = Cosmos 2372 Zenit rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 7 10:49 Oct 9 11:28 +-1d 8.0 S 135.5 E
SatEvo Oct 8 18:50 Oct 12 06:53 +-1d
_____________________________________________________________________
Latest elsets:
GPS 2-26 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 v 13 166 x 162 km
1 23954U 96041B 00282.58549772 .08893128 17077-5 57456-3 0 9156
2 23954 35.2232 15.0382 0003290 23.9931 336.1013 16.40642444236724
Teledesic 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 d 2.7 197 x 191 km
1 25234U 98012B 00282.53143960 .09169871 27118-5 21976-2 0 9654
2 25234 97.6346 202.5693 0004925 149.3194 210.8398 16.29554165144960
GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1 483 x 169 km
1 26408U 00040B 00282.62918278 .02359896 40738-5 11263-2 0 1478
2 26408 37.5531 98.4984 0233759 118.5248 243.9238 15.81612886 12590
C 2372 Zenit r 237 x 181 km
1 26539U 00056B 00282.59093060 .01501841 74484-5 45879-3 0 472
2 26539 64.7820 144.4302 0042436 59.5256 301.0089 16.23763954 2125
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun Oct 08 2000 - 11:17:11 PDT