Decay watch: 2000 Oct 8

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Oct 08 2000 - 11:14:22 PDT

  • Next message: finn@main.jetnet.ab.ca: "Final Cosmos 2372 r Obs"

    A summary of today's update of my Decay Watch page...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21829 = 91- 87 F = Raduga 28 aux motor
    
    Decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  8 10:48     Oct  8 09:45 +-19m       16.8 S   105.8 E
    SatEvo     Oct  8 16:50     Oct  8 09:40 +-3h         0.0      90.8 E
    
    Final (so far) elset:
    Raduga 28 aux motor                              448 x 117 km
    1 21829U 91087F   00281.87537775  .27945870  73772-5  58408-3 0  9527
    2 21829  46.3549  75.0480 0248474 167.3912 193.3450 15.97024996154767
    
    Note: Three elsets have appeared for the epoch 00281.87 rev, but nothing
    more recent that would back up the 19 min uncertainty in SpaceCom's
    final analysis. The elset listed above shows this running 4 sec early
    against my final prediction, but this is not too surprising since my
    analysis had included an elset only two revs earlier. I show this
    decaying near a southbound equator crossing over the NE Indian Ocean on
    the second of these SatEvo-predicted orbits:
    Raduga 28 aux motor                              241 x 110 km
    1 21829U 91087F   00282.30871832  .89141383  24921+1  80065-3 0 99526
    2 21829  46.3444  72.4237 0099914 170.0188 190.1810 16.36225760154830
    Raduga 28 aux motor                              155 x 105 km
    1 21829U 91087F   00282.36948919 3.44008753  50000+2  14263-2 0 99524
    2 21829  46.3409  72.0397 0038268 170.4034 189.6699 16.53501705154847
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23954 = 96- 41 B = GPS 2-26 r1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  8 13:40     Oct  8 17:29 +-2h        33.6 N   154.3 W
    SatEvo     Oct  8 17:35     Oct  8 23:52 +-2h        35.4 S    95.2 W
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ...(ends)
    GPS 2-26 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       142 x 139 km
    1 23954U 96041B   00282.88901896  .28378756  76264+0  35525-3 0 99154
    2 23954  35.2213  12.7652 0001998  27.2440 332.7663 16.49644826236775
    GPS 2-26 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       129 x 127 km
    1 23954U 96041B   00282.94945127  .51926758  18210+1  29432-3 0 99151
    2 23954  35.2204  12.3079 0001410  27.8982 332.1092 16.54278358236780
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this 101 sec late against yesterday's
    prediction. The decay has continued to slip and I now show it as it
    tracks eastwards over the SE Pacific on the second of these SatEvo-
    predicted revs.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25234 = 98- 12 B = Teledesic 1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  8 03:53     Oct  8 23:34 +-13h       65.2 N    30.1 E
    SatEvo     Oct  8 17:55     Oct  9 01:57 +-3h         0.0     155.9 E
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ... (ends)
    Teledesic 1      2.0  0.0  0.0  7.0 d  2.7       163 x 159 km
    1 25234U 98012B   00282.95994685  .28088789  56997+0  17751-2 0 99653
    2 25234  97.6305 203.0834 0002921 147.5548 212.4631 16.41943165145038
    Teledesic 1      2.0  0.0  0.0  7.0 d  2.7       151 x 148 km
    1 25234U 98012B   00283.02081835  .48450826  18645+1  11691-2 0 99659
    2 25234  97.6293 203.1574 0002300 147.3008 212.7134 16.46350039145045
    
    Note: The latest elset has this 35 sec late against yesterday's
    prediction. I now estimate that this will decay near a northbound
    equator crossing over Melanesia, to the NE of Australia, at the
    end of the final predicted rev.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26408 = 00- 40 B = GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Oct  5 13:24     Oct 12 12:21 +-4d         1.0 S    47.5 E
    SatEvo     Oct  8 17:45     Oct 15 01:00 +-2d
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26539 = 00- 56 B = Cosmos 2372 Zenit rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  7 10:49     Oct  9 11:28 +-1d         8.0 S   135.5 E
    SatEvo     Oct  8 18:50     Oct 12 06:53 +-1d
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Latest elsets:
    GPS 2-26 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       166 x 162 km
    1 23954U 96041B   00282.58549772  .08893128  17077-5  57456-3 0  9156
    2 23954  35.2232  15.0382 0003290  23.9931 336.1013 16.40642444236724
    Teledesic 1      2.0  0.0  0.0  7.0 d  2.7       197 x 191 km
    1 25234U 98012B   00282.53143960  .09169871  27118-5  21976-2 0  9654
    2 25234  97.6346 202.5693 0004925 149.3194 210.8398 16.29554165144960
    GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1                              483 x 169 km
    1 26408U 00040B   00282.62918278  .02359896  40738-5  11263-2 0  1478
    2 26408  37.5531  98.4984 0233759 118.5248 243.9238 15.81612886 12590
    C 2372 Zenit r                                   237 x 181 km
    1 26539U 00056B   00282.59093060  .01501841  74484-5  45879-3 0   472
    2 26539  64.7820 144.4302 0042436  59.5256 301.0089 16.23763954  2125
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
    http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sun Oct 08 2000 - 11:17:11 PDT