Re: unidentified "decay" Aug 12

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Oct 07 2000 - 10:45:04 PDT

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "Decay watch: 2000 Oct 7, part 1"

    Sorry for stepping in rather late in this correspondence - it has been
    hard enough to keep up with all the recent decayers and the publication
    my SatEvo decay list, not to mention my non-decayer activities :)
    
    Tony Beresford has already responded to Kate Martin's query. I concur
    that neither of the objects mentioned...
    
    >26420   99- 57 JR  CBERS LM4 deb                    August 12.4
    >26047   89-  1 N   Glonass 40 Proton deb            August 12   
    
    could have been the cause of this sighting. Specifically...
    
    #26047 = 89-  1 N = Glonass 40 Proton deb
    IMO, the final elset for this is more consistent with decay on the 12th
    than on the 13th. The last few elsets are discordant, however, and this
    is one of the very few objects for which I have been unable to obtain a 
    satisfactory SatEvo evolution over the final day or three. In any case, 
    its orbital plane at the time of the potential decay was about 2000 km 
    to the NE of Queensland so no decay could have been observed from that 
    vicinity.
    
    #26420 = 99- 57 JR = CBERS LM4 deb 
    Here the fit over the final elsets is much better, though there is a 
    gap of 18 hours between the penultimate elset and the final one. I 
    estimate that this decayed on August 12 near a southbound equator 
    crossing at 10:50 UTC near 16 deg E, over Africa. However, this was 
    more than a day after the final elset so the uncertainty is about 
    eight hours. The (near polar) orbit at the time of the decay was 
    even further from Australia, being northbound over the E Pacific and 
    southbound over Africa.
    
    Also...
    
    >1) Can anyone advise where these objects finally "went down"?
    
      Probably not.
    
    >2) Does anyone know of other possibilities that I have missed?
    
      I know of no other decaying satellites near this time.
    
    I suspect the object sighted was a meteoric fireball.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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