Decay watch: 2000 Oct 6

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Oct 06 2000 - 16:02:57 PDT

  • Next message: finn@main.jetnet.ab.ca: "Cosmos 2372 r Obs"

    See my Decay Watch page for updated decay predictions for the following
    object - latest elsets collected at the end and predicted elset on my
    WWW page ...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21829 = 91- 87 F = Raduga 28 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  6 01:39     Oct  8 00:47 +-1d        36.0 S    89.8 W
    SatEvo     Oct  6 21:50     Oct  8 10:35 +-13h
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23954 = 96- 41 B = GPS 2-26 r1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  6 03:35     Oct  8 02:11 +-1d        16.9 S    55.4 W
    SatEvo     Oct  6 22:00     Oct  8 02:15 +-8h
    
    This enters eclipse near southern apex in the evening and exits
    eclipse on the approach to northern apex in the morning.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25129 = 97- 86 D = Asiasat 3 Proton r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  6 14:22     Oct  7 01:37 +-7h        49.1 S     7.3 E
    SatEvo     Oct  6 22:10     Oct  7 03:21 +-3h        46.3 S     2.4 W
    
    Note: I suspect that this will decay near perigee on this SatEvo-
    predicted orbit:
    Asiasat 3 r                                      692 x 80 km
    1 25129U 97086D   00281.08692629 2.92428312  51929+1  14496-2 0 90694
    2 25129  50.7651 116.9747 0452336 264.2650  90.5618 15.60494935 26944
    This puts it over the South Atlantic, heading north-eastwards towards
    South Africa. It passes just N of Cape Town at 03:26 UTC and N of
    Pretoria three minutes later. SpaceCom puts the decay on the previous
    rev.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25234 = 98- 12 B = Teledesic 1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  5 20:42     Oct  8 17:01 +-2d        29.1 S    64.3 W
    SatEvo     Oct  6 22:20     Oct  8 14:07 +-12h
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25547 = 98- 68 B = Bonum Delta 2 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  6 17:25     Oct  7 04:35 +-8h        23.4 N   157.3 W
    SatEvo     Oct  6 22:30     Oct  7 04:24 +-4h        16.6 N   178.4 E
    
    I estimate that this will decay about one orbit later than the perigee
    time on the final predicted orbit below, over the central Pacific:
    Bonum Delta r    7.0  2.4  0.0  5.0 d   12       170 x 140 km
    1 25547U 98068B   00281.05556983  .30949562  67620+0  70830-3 0 96531
    2 25547  25.7228 223.7776 0022834  37.2614 322.8969 16.44247760100019
    Bonum Delta r    7.0  2.4  0.0  5.0 d   12       153 x 131 km
    1 25547U 98068B   00281.11615592  .54062221  20281+1  58283-3 0 96535
    2 25547  25.7222 223.2756 0017079  38.1134 322.0072 16.49137355100029
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26539 = 00- 56 B = Cosmos 2372 Zenit rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  6 19:03     Oct  9 04:51 +-1d        24.5 N    64.6 E
    SatEvo     Oct  6 22:45     Oct 11 07:29 +-1.2d
    
    This is visible southbound in the evening sky as it moves to enter
    eclipse near 49 deg N. Eclipse exit occurs near southern apex.
    Latest elsets:
    Raduga 28 aux motor                              720 x 124 km
    1 21829U 91087F   00280.53887106  .13125999  83834-5  53316-3 0  9378
    2 21829  46.3694  82.6471 0438514 159.3514 202.5747 15.48189262154550
    GPS 2-26 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       221 x 210 km
    1 23954U 96041B   00280.56403675  .02691586  16321-5  11627-2 0  9016
    2 23954  35.2205  29.8452 0008319  50.2225 309.9295 16.21448718236391
    Asiasat 3 r                                      1321 x 84 km
    1 25129U 97086D   00280.82015320  .99999999  67179-5  11641-2 0   690
    2 25129  50.7975 118.2405 0873510 263.2652  87.2780 14.57274124 26901
    Teledesic 1      2.0  0.0  0.0  7.0 d  2.7       249 x 242 km
    1 25234U 98012B   00280.49093832  .02600536  93375-2  31505-2 0  9520
    2 25234  97.6393 200.1752 0005441 131.2119 228.9663 16.10551973144636
    Bonum Delta r    7.0  2.4  0.0  5.0 d   12       220 x 165 km
    1 25547U 98068B   00280.56767267  .07683976 -11496-4  11739-2 0  6532
    2 25547  25.7250 227.7591 0041265  30.5038 329.8600 16.30029297 99933
    C 2372 Zenit r                                   260 x 191 km
    1 26539U 00056B   00280.55465305  .01130298  73451-5  51792-3 0   345
    2 26539  64.7842 152.1148 0052184  59.8890 300.7254 16.17957127  1793
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Oct 06 2000 - 16:04:46 PDT