SatEvo decay list #106

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Oct 05 2000 - 15:09:05 PDT

  • Next message: finn@main.jetnet.ab.ca: "Cosmos 2372 r Obs"

    SatEvo decay list #106  (issued 2000 October 5)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 November 30, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,300 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     25813   89-101 K   Cos 2354 Proton deb           September 12.7
     25310   98- 23 E   Globalstar 6 Delta r          September 17.21
     26491   88- 81 F   GStar 3 Ariane 3 deb          September 17.94
      5440   71- 71 C   Eole Scout deb                September 18.0
     26456   99- 57 LB  CBERS LM4 deb                 September 18
     20021   89- 16 N   M-3S2 deb                     September 19.4
     25497   85- 56 F   Giotto Ariane 1 deb           September 19?
     26453   99- 57 KY  CBERS LM4 deb                 September 20
     26492   00- 53 B   STS-106 deb                   September 21.0
     25995   99- 68 B   Terra Centaur r               September 21.56
     14693   84- 11 E   Palapa B2 r                   September 22.17
     25737   99- 26 C   Terriers Peg stg3             September 24.03
     26493   00- 53 C   STS-106 deb                   September 25.0
     26413   92- 72 G   Gal 7 Ariane 42 deb           September 25?
     11221   76-120 AY  Cosmos 880 deb                September 25.8
     23210   94- 50 H   Cosmos 2287 aux mot           September 26.10
     26439   99- 57 KL  CBERS LM4 deb                 September 26.1
      5070   70- 89 AH  Cosmos 374 deb                September 28.3
     24341   94- 29 NS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September 29.2
     26149   99- 57 AK  CBERS LM4 deb                 September 30.0 Note 1
     24238   94- 29 LM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb            September 30.4
     26403   00- 40 B   EchoStar 6 Centaur r            October  1.57
     26553   00- 58 B   Cosmos 2373 Soyuz-U r           October  2.43
     26556   00- 59 C   GE-1A Proton platform           October  2.45
     26555   00- 59 B   GE-1A Proton r                  October  3.30
     26104   00- 13 E   Express 1A aux motor            October 5.41
     18984   88-  6 F   DMSP F9 deb            October  5.6
     25129   97- 86 D   Asiasat 3 r2           October  7
     25547   98- 68 B   Bonum Delta 2 r        October  7
     26138   99- 57 AA  CBERS LM4 deb          October  7
     21829   91- 87 F   Raduga 28 aux motor    October  8
     23954   96- 41 B   GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1    October  8
     25234   98- 12 B   Teledesic 1            October  8
     26542   00- 56 E   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb  October  8
     23971   94- 29 R   STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October  9
     26541   00- 56 D   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb  October  9
     26543   00- 56 F   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb  October  9
      7967   72- 58 CT  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb  October 10
     26539   00- 56 B   Cosmos 2372 Zenit r    October 10
     26408   00- 40 B   GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1    October 13
     26425   99- 57 JW  CBERS LM4 deb          October 13
     26540   00- 56 C   Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb  October 15
     23632   95- 39 A   Interbol 1             October 16.58  Note 2
      4930   70- 25 FW  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb      October 18
     24249   94- 29 LY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 18
     23549   95- 18 A   Ofeq 3                 October 19
     24100   94- 29 EX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 20
     23107   93- 61 J   Spot 3 Ariane deb      October 21
     23817   96- 15 B   Intelsat 707 Ariane r  October 21
     24566   94- 29 XS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 23
     13759   81- 53 GR  Cosmos 1275 deb        October 24
     26144   99- 57 AG  CBERS LM4 deb          October 24
      4325   69- 82 DY  Thorad Agena D deb     October 25
     25305   94- 29 ADK STEP-2 Pegasus deb     October 25
     17208   86- 19 BL  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb    October 27
     26438   99- 57 KK  CBERS LM4 deb          October 27
     20255   89- 78 A   Molniya 1-76           October 28
     25031   97- 67 B   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r1    October 29
     25069   97- 75 C   JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r  November  1
     24258   94- 29 MH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    November  3
     23501   95-  8 A   Cosmos 2306           November  4
      1937   65-112 Q   Cosmos 103 SL-8 deb   November  5
     25390   98- 42 B   Tubsat N1             November  5
     26167   99- 57 BD  CBERS LM4 deb         November  5
     26431   99- 57 KC  CBERS LM4 deb         November  5
     22384   92- 93 BZ  Cosmos 2227 zenit deb November  7
     26133   99- 57 V   CBERS LM4 deb         November  7
      2167   66- 34 B   OV 3-1 r              November 13
     25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2   November 13
     26206   99- 57 CU  CBERS LM4 deb         November 13
     16311   79- 17 CA  Solwind deb           November 16
      5077   70- 89 AQ  Cosmos 374 deb        November 24
      8979   75-  4 BM  Landsat 4 Delta 1 deb November 26
      3492   65- 82 QN  OV2-1/LCS2 deb        November 30
     16243   85-105 D   Cosmos 1701 r2        December
     25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79            December
     14520   83-114 D   Molniya 1-59 r2   2001 January
     16110   85- 90 A   Cosmos 1689       2001 January
     25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r      2001 January
     25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85        2001 January
     16112   85- 91 A   Molniya 3-26     2001 February
     16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2  2001 February
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    2. #23632 = Interbol 1. Thanks to Vladimir Agapov for the "heads-up" 
    regarding this object. The perigee is being driven down strongly
    by luni-solar effects and it appears that Interbol 1 will plunge into
    the atmosphere on October 16. My own calculations show it falling 
    steeply to an altitude of 80 km near 7 deg S, 4 deg E, at 13:53 UTC 
    on that date. Vladimir reports that calculations at the KAIM 
    Ballistic Center give the decay at about 13:50 UTC close to 
    10.8 deg S, 3.4 deg E.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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