SatEvo decay list #106 (issued 2000 October 5) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2000 November 30, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,300 satellites. This is available in zipped form from the same address. I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ This includes my predicted elsets for these objects. # Designation Name ----- Decay (2000) ----- Predicted Actual? 25813 89-101 K Cos 2354 Proton deb September 12.7 25310 98- 23 E Globalstar 6 Delta r September 17.21 26491 88- 81 F GStar 3 Ariane 3 deb September 17.94 5440 71- 71 C Eole Scout deb September 18.0 26456 99- 57 LB CBERS LM4 deb September 18 20021 89- 16 N M-3S2 deb September 19.4 25497 85- 56 F Giotto Ariane 1 deb September 19? 26453 99- 57 KY CBERS LM4 deb September 20 26492 00- 53 B STS-106 deb September 21.0 25995 99- 68 B Terra Centaur r September 21.56 14693 84- 11 E Palapa B2 r September 22.17 25737 99- 26 C Terriers Peg stg3 September 24.03 26493 00- 53 C STS-106 deb September 25.0 26413 92- 72 G Gal 7 Ariane 42 deb September 25? 11221 76-120 AY Cosmos 880 deb September 25.8 23210 94- 50 H Cosmos 2287 aux mot September 26.10 26439 99- 57 KL CBERS LM4 deb September 26.1 5070 70- 89 AH Cosmos 374 deb September 28.3 24341 94- 29 NS STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 29.2 26149 99- 57 AK CBERS LM4 deb September 30.0 Note 1 24238 94- 29 LM STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 30.4 26403 00- 40 B EchoStar 6 Centaur r October 1.57 26553 00- 58 B Cosmos 2373 Soyuz-U r October 2.43 26556 00- 59 C GE-1A Proton platform October 2.45 26555 00- 59 B GE-1A Proton r October 3.30 26104 00- 13 E Express 1A aux motor October 5.41 18984 88- 6 F DMSP F9 deb October 5.6 25129 97- 86 D Asiasat 3 r2 October 7 25547 98- 68 B Bonum Delta 2 r October 7 26138 99- 57 AA CBERS LM4 deb October 7 21829 91- 87 F Raduga 28 aux motor October 8 23954 96- 41 B GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1 October 8 25234 98- 12 B Teledesic 1 October 8 26542 00- 56 E Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb October 8 23971 94- 29 R STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 9 26541 00- 56 D Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb October 9 26543 00- 56 F Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb October 9 7967 72- 58 CT Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb October 10 26539 00- 56 B Cosmos 2372 Zenit r October 10 26408 00- 40 B GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1 October 13 26425 99- 57 JW CBERS LM4 deb October 13 26540 00- 56 C Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb October 15 23632 95- 39 A Interbol 1 October 16.58 Note 2 4930 70- 25 FW Nimbus 4 ThAg deb October 18 24249 94- 29 LY STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 18 23549 95- 18 A Ofeq 3 October 19 24100 94- 29 EX STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 20 23107 93- 61 J Spot 3 Ariane deb October 21 23817 96- 15 B Intelsat 707 Ariane r October 21 24566 94- 29 XS STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 23 13759 81- 53 GR Cosmos 1275 deb October 24 26144 99- 57 AG CBERS LM4 deb October 24 4325 69- 82 DY Thorad Agena D deb October 25 25305 94- 29 ADK STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 25 17208 86- 19 BL Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb October 27 26438 99- 57 KK CBERS LM4 deb October 27 20255 89- 78 A Molniya 1-76 October 28 25031 97- 67 B GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r1 October 29 25069 97- 75 C JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r November 1 24258 94- 29 MH STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 3 23501 95- 8 A Cosmos 2306 November 4 1937 65-112 Q Cosmos 103 SL-8 deb November 5 25390 98- 42 B Tubsat N1 November 5 26167 99- 57 BD CBERS LM4 deb November 5 26431 99- 57 KC CBERS LM4 deb November 5 22384 92- 93 BZ Cosmos 2227 zenit deb November 7 26133 99- 57 V CBERS LM4 deb November 7 2167 66- 34 B OV 3-1 r November 13 25032 97- 67 C GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2 November 13 26206 99- 57 CU CBERS LM4 deb November 13 16311 79- 17 CA Solwind deb November 16 5077 70- 89 AQ Cosmos 374 deb November 24 8979 75- 4 BM Landsat 4 Delta 1 deb November 26 3492 65- 82 QN OV2-1/LCS2 deb November 30 16243 85-105 D Cosmos 1701 r2 December 25470 98- 51 D Iridium 79 December 14520 83-114 D Molniya 1-59 r2 2001 January 16110 85- 90 A Cosmos 1689 2001 January 25124 97- 85 B Early Bird r 2001 January 25529 98- 66 C Iridium 85 2001 January 16112 85- 91 A Molniya 3-26 2001 February 16939 86- 68 D Molniya 1-68 r2 2001 February Notes 1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay. 2. #23632 = Interbol 1. Thanks to Vladimir Agapov for the "heads-up" regarding this object. The perigee is being driven down strongly by luni-solar effects and it appears that Interbol 1 will plunge into the atmosphere on October 16. My own calculations show it falling steeply to an altitude of 80 km near 7 deg S, 4 deg E, at 13:53 UTC on that date. Vladimir reports that calculations at the KAIM Ballistic Center give the decay at about 13:50 UTC close to 10.8 deg S, 3.4 deg E. Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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