Decay watch: Oct 31
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 31 Oct 1999 21:53:03 +0000
My calculations suggest that #25953 = 99- 54 E = Resurs F-1 M debris E
decayed at Oct 31 05:28 UTC +-25m. The final published elset...
Resurs F-1 M deb E 125 x 112 km
1 25953U 99054E 99304.17286755 .25924986 -15278-5 99026-4 0 453
2 25953 82.3067 159.6068 0010226 19.5584 340.4974 16.58001228 5302
... is likely to be for the final northbound equator crossing. I show
decay almost one orbit later while it was northbound to the SE of
Durban, S Africa, near 31.9 S, 33.7 E. If it continued, its path would
have carried it towards an equator crossing near Nairobi, Kenya.
SpaceCom and Harro Zimmer put decay further back in the orbit, over the
SE Pacific.
My current prediction for #24832 = 97- 28 E = Cosmos 2344 aux motor is
for decay at Nov 2 01:11 UTC +-9h.
SpaceCom has issued its first decay warning for #24972 = 97- 57 B, the
Indian PSLV 1C rocket that launched IRS-1D. I predict this decay for
Nov 4 18:15 UTC +-1d; SpaceCom puts it two hours earlier. This enters
eclipse in the Earth's shadow while northbound near 74 deg N latitude at
~05:30 local time. Eclipse exit occurs while southbound near 9 deg S at
~19:30 local time.
More details and predicted elsets are on my Decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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