Decay watch: Oct 24
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 24 Oct 1999 12:39:25 +0100
OIG has been broken for several hours, so I am unable to obtain the
SpaceCom decay notices for the current objects. I do have elsets up to
OIG's failure, so I have been able to update my own SatEvo predictions
on my Decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
Of those objects still to decay...
Object: #24744 = 97- 10 A = Zeya
I predict decay for Oct 25 00:26 +-6h, possibly near 27.2 N, 5.6 W.
There is a chance that this decay may be visible during a southbound
pass over Europe, though it is a great pity that OIG's current failure
means that more recent elsets are unavailable. My final predicted
orbit...
Zeya 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 0.81 132 x 130 km
1 24744U 97010A 99297.99236848 1.37207808 50000+2 10604-2 0 97715
2 24744 97.1879 210.1294 0001515 158.8691 201.1372 16.53077592148793
... takes it northwards across the equator at the International Date
Line at 23:49 UTC, over the extreme E of Russia at ~00:05 to northern
apex over the Arctic. Its southbound leg carries it over Bergen, Norway,
at 00:18, between London and Paris at 00:20, just E of Madrid at 00:23
and onwards across Morocco and the W Sahara, which happens to be where I
place decay. There is enough uncertainty that a decay during one of the
earlier passes further to the E over Europe cannot be ruled out.
Object: #25550 = 98- 69 B = SAC A
My prediction is for decay at Oct 25 01:15 +-6h. This is near a
northbound equator crossing over the central Pacific near 174 deg E at
the end of the final predicted orbit...
SAC-A 1.0 1.0 0.0 7.5 d 0.38 128 x 127 km
1 25550U 98069B 99297.99166787 .50414876 33700+1 28783-3 0 93473
2 25550 51.5553 226.4150 0000734 239.7484 120.2443 16.54404010 49615
A re-entry near a southbound crossing is almost as likely and a decay
elsewhere around the orbit is also possible. The final rev takes it
across N America from northern California at 00:01 UTC, to N Dakota at
00:06, Winnipeg, Manitoba, at 00:07, and the Gulf of St Lawrence at
00:12. It dives south-eastwards across Africa from S Morocco at 00:24 to
Johannesburg, S Africa, at 00:40 and Durban at 00:41.
Object: #25921 = 99- 51 C = Ikonos 2 r debris
I predict decay at Oct 25 00:31 +-6h near 18.7 N, 152.2 E. This is on
the southbound leg of the final predicted orbit (below), just to the E
of the Big Island of Hawaii. The track before this takes it northbound
over the Atlantic and Greenland.
Final orbit:
Ikonos 2 r deb 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 d 1 129 x 115 km
1 25921U 99051C 99297.99448413 .74177356 62207+1 33543-3 0 91002
2 25921 98.1647 10.1449 0010715 38.5158 321.5606 16.56561366 4832
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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