SatEvo decay list #86
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 23 Oct 1999 22:48:15 +0100
SatEvo decay list #86 (issued 1999 October 23)
This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
decay by 1999 November 30, although some larger and/or more interesting
decayers are included beyond that date.
This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly
launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file,
satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites.
This is available in zipped form from the same address.
I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger
decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
# Designation Name ----- Decay (1999) -----
Predicted Actual?
24445 94- 29 TB STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 2 Note 2
25918 99- 48 F Foton 12 deb October 3.0
15076 84- 63 E Raduga 15 aux motor October 4.03
9815 76-126 AB Cosmos 886 deb October 4.5
24260 94- 29 MK STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 4
25717 89-100 BN C 2053 Tsyklon deb October 7.9 Note 1
25916 99- 48 D Foton 12 deb October 10.89
24168 94- 29 HT STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 12
25228 87- 68 BF Meteor 2-16 deb October 13
25680 99- 19 E Glblstar 45 Soyuz r1 October 13.99
21379 75- 52 CZ Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb October 14
17038 86- 79 A Molniya 3-30 October 15.33
25507 98- 60 C SCD-2 Pegasus deb October 17 Note 1
24235 94- 29 LJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 18
24632 94- 29 AAL STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 21
25917 99- 48 E Foton 12 deb October 22.66
25952 99- 54 D Resurs F-1 M deb October 22.8
12134 81- 2 B Molniya 3-14 r2 October 23.00 Note 3
25500 98- 25 F C 2350 aux motor October 23.34
25951 99- 54 C Resurs F-1 M deb October 23.67
24349 94- 29 PA STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 24
25921 99- 51 C Ikonos Athena deb October 24.9
24744 97- 10 A Zeya October 25.0
25550 98- 69 B SAC-A October 25.0
5093 70- 91 AQ Cosmos 375 deb October 26
24355 94- 29 PG STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 26
13738 82-118 C DMSP F6 deb October 27
25889 99- 44 A Cosmos 2365 October 28
24586 94- 29 YN STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 29
5533 71- 15 BX Cosmos 397 deb October 30
24128 94- 29 GB STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 30
25953 99- 54 E Resurs F-1 M deb October 30
24152 94- 29 HB STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 31
24832 97- 28 E C 2344 SOZ ullage r November 1
23977 94- 29 X STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 2
24590 94- 29 YS STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 2
23563 91- 47 E PAM-D deb November 4
18128 87- 53 C DMSP F8 deb November 5
24972 97- 57 B IRS-1D r November 5
24993 94- 29 ADA STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 5?
7944 72- 58 CK Lansat 1 Delta 1 deb November 7
24196 94- 29 JX STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 7
25494 98- 56 D Eutelsat W2 Spelda November 7
22386 92- 93 CB C 2227 Zenit deb November 12
24266 94- 29 MR STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 12
24531 94- 29 WF STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 12
23995 94- 29 AQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 14
22661 93- 16 AG C 2237 Zenit deb November 15
4222 69- 97 B AZUR Scout r November 16
22434 92- 93 EB C 2227 Zenit deb November 16
24291 96- 50 A Microsat November 17
24267 94- 29 MS STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 18
22016 92- 39 C GPS 2-14 Delta r2 November 22
24534 94- 29 WJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 22
25551 98- 69 C MightySat December 1
22564 93- 15 B UFO 1 r1 December 11
25014 97- 63 B STEP M4 Pegasus r December 11
19377 88- 69 A Molniya 1-73 December 15?
1844 65-106 B Cosmos 100 r December 17
(2000)
22702 93- 42 C GPS 2-21 Delta r2 January
25790 99- 34 B QuikScat Titan 2 r January
25176 98- 11 B COMETS H2 r February
7969 75- 56 B Cosmos 744 r February
9854 77- 15 B Cosmos 895 r February
25911 99- 49 E Glblstar 33 Soyuz r February
25769 99- 30 B Starshine March
11331 79- 32 A Cosmos 1093 March-April
22876 93- 67 B Cosmos 2265 r March-April
25947 99- 58 E Gstar31? Soyuz r March-April
16609 86- 17 A Mir April-June
Notes
1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
2. #24445 = 94- 29 TB was listed as decaying on September 30 in my
previous decay list. After a gap of three days, however, further
appeared and showed it on the brink of decay.
3. The re-entry of #12134, Molniya 3-14 r2, was observed from the
Johannesburg/Pretoria area of South Africa at midnight UTC
(02:00 local time) on October 22/23. The sightings were of a very
bright object followed by 8-10 lesser objects. I also understand that
a traffic officer secured some video footage and that this has
appeared on TV. Thanks to Claire Flanagan of the Johannesburg
Planetarium for connecting the reports she received with the
prediction of this decay on my Decay Watch page.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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