Decay watch: Oct 22
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 22 Oct 1999 23:05:59 +0100
Geomagnetic conditions were more disturbed this UTC morning than at
any time for at least a year. Drag rates may be expected to be much
higher than expected with the result that satellites may be running
early against predictions using elsets from before the storm. For the
same reason, decays have shifted earlier against my predictions in
yesterday's Decay watch note.
As usual, there is much more information on my decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
which has almost 300 lines of predictions for the eight (!) current
decayers.
#12134 = 81- 2 B = Molniya 3-14 r2
Predicted decay at Oct 23 22:10 -90+20m. It is possible that this has
already decayed. The prediction, though, is for re-entry at 22:10 UTC
near southern apex over the far-S Atlantic.
#24744 = 97- 10 A = Zeya
Predicted decay at Oct 24 01:28 +-12h. This new addition to
SpaceCom's list enters eclipse near northern apex over the Arctic at
~05h local time and leaves eclipse while southbound near 64 deg S at
~22:30 local time.
#25500 = 98- 25 F = Cosmos 2350 aux motor
With apologies for getting the name wrong before - it is impossible
to compute and compile so much data under such time-pressure without
occasional errors creeping in. I now predict decay for Oct 23 11:14 +-6h
on a southbound pass over Laos towards Darwin, Australia, at 11:25 UTC
and onwards across Australia to pass E of Sydney at 11:32. SpaceCom
issued their prediction for a much earlier decay at the height of this
morning's geomagnetic storm.
#25550 = 98- 69 B = SAC A
Predicted decay now at Oct 24 13:48 +-15h.
#25917 = 99- 48 E = Foton 12 debris
I put decay at Oct 22 15:55 -30+60m over the NE USA on a track taking
it from Toronto towards Philadelphia at 15:54 - 15:55 UTC, but the
uncertainty is a full orbit. Presumably, the decay was affected strongly
by the strong geomagnetic disturbance earlier in the day. My predicted
elset for the final rev:
Foton 12 deb E 2.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 d 2 132 x 117 km
1 25917U 99048E 99295.64099454 .46938967 29179+1 22089-3 0 90960
2 25917 62.7826 39.0609 0011133 110.5724 249.5471 16.55638906 4558
#25921 = 99- 51 C = Ikonos 2 r debris
Decay predicted for Oct 24 17:15 +-16h. This enters the Earth's
shadow near 65 deg S while northbound near local midnight. It leaves
eclipse near northern apex at about 18h local time.
#25929 = 99- 54 A = Resurs F-1 M
SpaceCom are reporting that this re-entered today, Oct 22. If it is
no longer in orbit then it must have been de-orbitted manually rather
than by natural decay.
#25951 = 99- 54 C = Resurs F-1 M debris
I predict decay for Oct 23 12:23 +-7h. This enters eclipse while
southbound near 75 deg N at ~18h local time and leaves eclipse while
southbound near 61 deg S at ~22h local time.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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