Decay Forecast FOTON DEBRIS

Harro.Zimmer (
Mon, 18 Oct 1999 22:12:20 +0200

1999-048E (#25917) FOTON 12 DEBRIS

The "debris" is a massive piece - a compact spacecraft unit - with a large 
mass/drag area. One can see it on the very slow decay. There are only a few 
visual observations. (Ed Cannon Oct 14: "About + 2.5 at a range of 240 km and a 
good phase angle").
Based on a set of the last four ELSETs I have derived a ballistic coefficient.
Following assumptions: Drag area: 1.0 mē  (RCS 0.896  - 1.21 mē)  Drag coeffi-
cient 2.20. The resulting mass is then around 240 kg.
Then with the last released ELSETs 99291.228... and 99291.474... MPM delivers
a decay at         21 October,  23:50 UTC +/- 08 hours.
I am missing Alans and SpaceComs forecasts... and your observations (tumbling!?)

Berlin, Germany 

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