Re: Mystery object reported over Bermuda

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 16 Oct 1999 17:22:39 +0100

Gene Heyler <Gene_Heyler@jhuapl.edu> writes
>Here is an account of an object seen over Bermuda, as reported in their
>local paper.
>I believe the time of  10:40 pm Oct 12 would put the sighting at 00:40
>Oct 13 UTC.

Harro Zimmer is correct in identifying what I think are the only two
decayers around this time.

#24168 = 94- 29 HT = STEP-2 Pegasus deb
The final two elsets for this are incompatible, showing the mean motion
and drag decreasing at a time when they must have been increasing
sharply:
Pegasus deb HT                                   279 x 253 km
1 24168U 94029HT  99285.46404038  .13261179  00000-0  21312-1 0  7692
2 24168  82.0455  67.6423 0019153 293.7523  66.2327 16.03146387290078
Pegasus deb HT                                   287 x 266 km
1 24168U 94029HT  99285.65805164  .07384798  15666+0  23251-1 0  7680
2 24168  82.0417  67.4552 0015591 279.3367 114.0099 15.99309439289850
In fact, the first of these (elset number 769) is the last one that
SpaceCom issued, so I have ignored the other one in my decay analysis. I
estimate decay at October 12 20:11 UTC +-4h. The orbit, though, could
not have brought it within sight of Bermuda at the reported time.

#25228 = 87- 68 BF = Meteor 2-16 deb
I estimate decay at October 13.3 +-0.7d, though the final elset had been
published 2.9 days earlier. A predicted elset for close to decay is...
SL-14 deb                                        216 x 202 km
1 25228U 87068BF  99286.09904012  .26465505  33064+0  10271-1 0 96836
2 25228  82.0221 346.1385 0010436 114.9317 245.1768 16.23869391 89330
Again, the orbital plane is wrong for a decay within sight of Bermuda at
October 13 00:40 UTC. I agree with Harro that there might have been a
northbound pass to the west of Bermuda two hours later - I get 02:30 UTC
rather than Harro's 02:35, but these are near enough given the age of
the elset(s). However, the object was observed in the east and (as I
understand) was descending rather steeply.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

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