Decay watch: Oct 11
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 11 Oct 1999 21:33:14 +0100
I have posted the final decay notice for #25916, Foton 12 debris D,
to my Decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
Over the space of several hours, SpaceCom issued four different "final"
elsets for this object, the last one ...
Foton 12 deb D 2.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 d 2 195 x 171 km
1 25916U 99048D 99283.82904268 .46137822 91043-5 65884-2 0 655
2 25916 62.7663 89.4760 0018408 9.1652 350.9483 16.33728867 2581
...showing it only 4 seconds late against my final prediction of
yesterday. SpaceCom puts the decay at October 11 00:40 UTC +-2h, but I
am convinced that it could not have survived as long as another 4.8
hours after the above elset. Rather decay probably occurred near the end
of the orbit above, near a northbound equator crossing over Indonesia at
October 10 21:22 UTC -30m+90m. If it did survive into the next orbit, it
would have moved SE over W Canada and across the USA from Great Falls,
Montana, at 21:51 UTC, to Denver, Colorado, at 21:54 and between Houston
and San Antonio, Texas, at 21:57.
The decay of #25680, the Globalstar 45 Soyuz rocket, has shifted earlier
to October 13 15:22 UTC +-14h, which is within 30m of SpaceCom's latest
estimate.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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