Decay watch: Oct 11

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 11 Oct 1999 21:33:14 +0100

I have posted the final decay notice for #25916, Foton 12 debris D,
to my Decay Watch page at
      http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/

Over the space of several hours, SpaceCom issued four different "final"
elsets for this object, the last one ...

Foton 12 deb D   2.0  0.0  0.0  6.5 d    2       195 x 171 km
1 25916U 99048D   99283.82904268  .46137822  91043-5  65884-2 0   655
2 25916  62.7663  89.4760 0018408   9.1652 350.9483 16.33728867  2581

...showing it only 4 seconds late against my final prediction of
yesterday. SpaceCom puts the decay at October 11 00:40 UTC +-2h, but I
am convinced that it could not have survived as long as another 4.8
hours after the above elset. Rather decay probably occurred near the end
of the orbit above, near a northbound equator crossing over Indonesia at
October 10 21:22 UTC -30m+90m. If it did survive into the next orbit, it
would have moved SE over W Canada and across the USA from Great Falls,
Montana, at 21:51 UTC, to Denver, Colorado, at 21:54 and between Houston
and San Antonio, Texas, at 21:57.

The decay of #25680, the Globalstar 45 Soyuz rocket, has shifted earlier
to October 13 15:22 UTC +-14h, which is within 30m of SpaceCom's latest
estimate.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

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