Decay watch: October 3
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 3 Oct 1999 19:58:22 +0100
The Raduga 15 aux motor, #15076, was running 70 seconds early against my
prediction of yesterday at the epoch of the latest elset:
Raduga 15 aux motor 0.74 319 x 111 km
1 15076U 84063E 99276.63401756 .20484870 11957-4 24146-3 0 4080
2 15076 46.5295 256.3910 0158218 305.1277 53.4852 16.21729732219861
As a result, my predicted decay time has moved earlier, too, to Oct 4
01:21 UTC +-4h. This is more in line with SpaceCom's forecast of Oct 3
23:34 +-4h. I show decay while northbound over the S Pacific. SpaceCom
has it approaching southern apex on the previous orbit. If it is in
orbit at the time, it overflies Mexico City at 00:08, then across the SE
USA from SE of New Orleans at 00:12 to Norfolk, VA, at 00:16. Given the
location of perigee, however, S hemisphere re-entry is more likely. My
predicted elsets for the final two revs:
Raduga 15 aux motor 0.74 219 x 105 km
1 15076U 84063E 99276.94043272 .47702520 75585+0 31392-3 0 94085
2 15076 46.5246 254.4957 0087076 307.0103 52.1961 16.41349912219912
Raduga 15 aux motor 0.74 184 x 103 km
1 15076U 84063E 99277.00121143 .72520053 23136+1 35728-3 0 94087
2 15076 46.5229 254.1122 0062264 307.3913 52.0435 16.48366128219929
More details at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/