SatEvo decay list #85
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 2 Oct 1999 20:28:04 +0100
SatEvo decay list #85 (issued 1999 October 2)
This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
decay by 1999 November 15, although some larger and/or more interesting
decayers are included beyond that date.
This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, and all newly
launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file,
satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites.
This is available in zipped form from the same address.
I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger
decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
# Designation Name ----- Decay (1999) -----
Predicted Actual?
15030 84- 55 D Cosmos 1569 Molniya r2 September 8? Note 2
25817 89-101 P Cosmos 2054 Proton deb September 10?
24491 94- 29 UQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 14
10339 77- 65 DN Himawari 1 Delta deb September 15
24983 94- 29 ACR STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 17
25447 94- 29 AEC STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 17
25712 89-100 BH C 2053 Tsyklon deb September 17 Note 1
22878 93- 68 B GPS 2-23 Delta r1 September 18.07
24121 94- 29 FU STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 21
18461 86- 19 SZ Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb September 23
25903 99- 48 B Foton 12 Soyuz r September 25.12
25926 99- 53 C LMI-1 Proton platform September 27.52
25925 99- 53 B LMI-1 Proton r September 28.51
25920 99- 51 B Ikonos Orb Adj Module September 28.82
25930 99- 54 B Resurs F-1M Soyuz r September 30.11
24445 94- 29 TB STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 30 Note 1
25915 99- 48 C Foton 12 deb September 30
22288 92- 93 C C 2227 Zenit deb October 1 Note 1
25762 99-010 F Raduag 104 aux motor October 1? Note 1
25918 99- 48 F Foton 12 deb October 3
9815 76-126 AB Cosmos 886 deb October 4
15076 84- 63 E Raduga 15 aux motor October 4
24260 94- 29 MK STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 4
25717 89-100 BN C 2053 Tsyklon deb October 8
25228 87- 68 BF Meteor 2-16 deb October 11
25916 99- 48 D Foton 12 deb October 11
24168 94- 29 HT STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 15
25507 98- 60 C SCD-2 Pegasus deb October 17
25680 99- 19 E Glblstar 19 Soyuz r1 October 18
24235 94- 29 LJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 19
25500 98- 25 F C 2350 aux motor October 21
21379 75- 52 CZ Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb October 23
25917 99- 48 E Foton 12 deb October 25
25921 99- 51 C Ikonos Athena deb October 26
5093 70- 91 AQ Cosmos 375 deb October 27
24744 97- 10 A Zeya October 30
25550 98- 69 B SAC-A October 30
24349 94- 29 PA STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 31
24993 94- 29 ADA STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 31
23563 91- 47 E PAM-D deb November 2
24632 94- 29 AAL STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 2
13738 82-118 C DMSP F6 deb November 4
12134 81- 2 B Molniya 3-14 r2 November 5?
24832 97- 28 E C 2344 SOZ ullage r November 8
24590 94- 29 YS STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 11
25494 98- 56 D Eutelsat W2 Spelda November 11
5533 71- 15 BX Cosmos 397 deb November 12
24972 97- 57 B IRS-1D r November 12
24586 94- 29 YN STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 13
23995 94- 29 AQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 15
4222 69- 97 B AZUR Scout r November 25
22016 92- 39 C GPS 2-14 Delta r2 December 4
24291 96- 50 A Microsat December 4
19377 88- 69 A Molniya 1-73 December
25551 98- 69 C MightySat December
(2000)
1844 65-106 B Cosmos 100 r January
22564 93- 15 B UFO 1 r1 January
22702 93- 42 C GPS 2-21 Delta r2 January
25014 97- 63 B STEP M4 Pegasus r January
25790 99- 34 B QuikScat Titan 2 r January
25176 98- 11 B COMETS H2 r February
7969 75- 56 B Cosmos 744 r March-April
9854 77- 15 B Cosmos 895 r March-April
25911 99- 49 E Glblstar 33 Soyuz r March-April
25769 99- 30 B Starshine April-May
22876 93- 67 B Cosmos 2265 r May-July
16609 86- 17 A Mir May-July
Notes
1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
2. The perigee of #15030, the Cosmos 1569 Molniya r2, stood at 89 km
at the time of the final published elset for this on August 29.
Luni-solar perturbations should have been forcing this down by almost
2 km per day, so it could not have survived much longer. My decay date
of September 8 is little more than a guess. SpaceCom puts decay at
September 28.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/