Re: Decay watch: #25486 = Molniya rocket

Edward S Light (light@argoscomp.com)
Mon, 12 Oct 1998 07:38:09 -0400 (EDT)

Yesterday, Alan Pickup posted ...

> Date: Sun, 11 Oct 1998 18:41:29 +0100
> To: SeeSat-L <SeeSat-L@blackadder.lmsal.com>
> From: Alan Pickup <alan@wingar.demon.co.uk>
> Subject: Decay watch: #25486 = Molniya rocket
> 
> OIG has been down for the past day, so the only update on this decaying
> rocket comes from Ron Lee's observation at 00:50 UTC today. He observed
> it about 4 seconds late on the evolution I posted yesterday. I have
> factored this into a new prediction for decay at October 13.8 +-0.6 day.
> 
> My updated evolution:
> Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 249 x 179 km
> 1 25486U 98054B   98285.01895593  .03158054  44274-2  99212-3 0 90561
> 2 25486  62.8069 261.6445 0052859 135.0614 225.3676 16.22034903  2097
> Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 234 x 175 km
> 1 25486U 98054B   98285.51162580  .04035189  79463-2  10033-2 0 90564
> 2 25486  62.8058 259.6416 0045012 135.1584 225.2062 16.25536516  2177
> Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 215 x 169 km
> 1 25486U 98054B   98286.00307000  .05883640  19620-1  10205-2 0 90560
> 2 25486  62.8042 257.6321 0035495 135.2559 225.0310 16.30272039  2256
> 

Using the first TLE set above (for epoch 98285.01895593), and Skymap, I
observed this object approximately 8 seconds LATE. At 23:11:08 +/- 2s UTC
1998 Oct 11 (or 98284.96606) it passed Megrez=Delta UMa vs the predicted
time 23:11:00. Incidentally, it was varying with roughly a two second
period and at brightest was almost as bright as Alioth=Epsilon Uma.

Clear and dark skies!
   Ed Light

Lakewood, NJ, USA
N 40.1072, W 074.2317, Hgt +21 m (69 ft)