Re: Decay watch: Molniya r and platform

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 9 Oct 1998 20:49:36 +0100

The latest elset for the decaying Molniya rocket ...

Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 297 x 191 km
1 25486U 98054B   98282.54380507  .01951824  82326-5  11355-2 0   514
2 25486  62.8155 271.5854 0080061 135.7254 224.9939 16.11002588  1694

...has it running 5 seconds late on the SatEvo prediction I posted
yesterday.  My new decay prediction is for October 13.4 +-0.8 day.
Evolution:
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 289 x 190 km
1 25486U 98054B   98283.04007166  .01985351  14411-2  10561-2 0 90513
2 25486  62.8149 269.6024 0074781 135.8201 224.7795 16.12868700  1773
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 279 x 188 km
1 25486U 98054B   98283.53574378  .02232883  19267-2  10710-2 0 90517
2 25486  62.8142 267.6161 0069105 135.9150 224.6380 16.14953681  1857
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 268 x 185 km
1 25486U 98054B   98284.03073451  .02571551  27037-2  10873-2 0 90511
2 25486  62.8134 265.6262 0062929 136.0102 224.4923 16.17322279  1930

              ----------------------------------

The latest on the platform ...

Molniya 1T? platform                             226 x 152 km
1 25487U 98054C   98282.65459487  .07664095  84225-5  67040-3 0   612
2 25487  62.8139 270.9987 0056083 120.3116 240.3967 16.31350301  1718

... shows it only 0.7 second late on my previous prediction. I calculate
decay for October 10.21 (05:00 UTC +-3 hours).
Evolution:
Molniya 1T? platform                             209 x 149 km
1 25487U 98054C   98282.83825516  .11927884  83669-1  73043-3 0 90611
2 25487  62.8127 270.2422 0045880 120.3478 240.1067 16.34972135  1746
Molniya 1T? platform                             186 x 143 km
1 25487U 98054C   98283.02142959  .20592424  27382+0  65777-3 0 90617
2 25487  62.8110 269.4828 0032671 120.3843 239.9391 16.40597615  1770
Molniya 1T? platform                             158 x 133 km
1 25487U 98054C   98283.14307955  .45565741  15910+1  59173-3 0 90616
2 25487  62.8090 268.9740 0019450 120.4087 239.7834 16.47744502  1793
Molniya 1T? platform                             119 x 111 km
1 25487U 98054C   98283.20359521 2.82601650  50000+2  87694-3 0 90611
2 25487  62.8073 268.7180 0005874 120.4211 239.6369 16.59207177  1803

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/