Decay watch: Molniya r and platform

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 8 Oct 1998 22:24:24 +0100

The latest elsets for the two decaying Molniya objects from the Molniya
1T (aka Cosmos 2361) launch are:

Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 308 x 194 km
1 25486U 98054B   98281.79836544  .01557690  82001-5  10333-2 0   470
2 25486  62.8182 274.5531 0085567 134.7706 226.0457 16.08526949  1579
Molniya 1T? platform                             281 x 164 km
1 25487U 98054C   98281.60823223  .03750589  00000-0  87791-3 0   551
2 25487  62.8248 275.2501 0088659 121.0519 240.0263 16.19097345  1536

I now predict the rocket's decay for October 13.3 +-0.9 day.
Predicted elsets:
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 304 x 193 km
1 25486U 98054B   98282.04693994  .01703974  90741-3  10845-2 0 90472
2 25486  62.8179 273.5642 0083155 134.8176 225.8612 16.09387505  1619
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 295 x 192 km
1 25486U 98054B   98282.54373126  .01859193  12211-2  10930-2 0 90474
2 25486  62.8173 271.5840 0078112 134.9117 225.7247 16.11153410  1694
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 287 x 190 km
1 25486U 98054B   98283.03995189  .02066192  15871-2  11074-2 0 90473
2 25486  62.8167 269.6007 0072726 135.0061 225.5854 16.13096818  1776

The platform will decay first, at October 10.2 +-0.3 day by my
calculation. Prediction:
Molniya 1T? platform                             261 x 161 km
1 25487U 98054C   98282.03996408  .05213736  10198-1  10091-2 0 90552
2 25487  62.8235 273.5024 0075602 121.1341 239.6096 16.23203158  1603
Molniya 1T? platform                             232 x 157 km
1 25487U 98054C   98282.53189932  .07674797  29318-1  10285-2 0 90552
2 25487  62.8215 271.4967 0057199 121.2288 239.3330 16.29334368  1686
Molniya 1T? platform                             212 x 153 km
1 25487U 98054C   98282.77705498  .10958080  67477-1  89323-3 0 90551
2 25487  62.8201 270.4895 0045319 121.2764 239.1682 16.33788449  1721
Molniya 1T? platform                             182 x 144 km
1 25487U 98054C   98283.02136032  .22520222  34618+0  71762-3 0 90555
2 25487  62.8176 269.4776 0028984 121.3244 238.9594 16.41218134  1762
Molniya 1T? platform                             169 x 139 km
1 25487U 98054C   98283.08222257  .31704861  75878+0  65787-3 0 90552
2 25487  62.8167 269.2235 0023186 121.3365 238.8905 16.44444308  1776
Molniya 1T? platform                             151 x 130 km
1 25487U 98054C   98283.14293336  .59826623  32392+1  62696-3 0 90557
2 25487  62.8152 268.9685 0015349 121.3487 238.8016 16.49584041  1780

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/