Decay update : October 13
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 13 Oct 1997 23:57:03 +0100
The final elset for the Lewis LMLV-1 rocket is:
LMLV-1 136 x 124 km
1 24910U 97044B 97286.36781440 .30098568 28837-5 20207-3 0 1331
2 24910 97.4964 186.9378 0009254 226.4737 133.9156 16.53594977 8170
showing that it survived for longer than I had predicted 24h ago. It may
have decayed at around October 13.406 (09:45 UTC) on this rev.
The decaying Molniya-M rocket may also last a little longer, to perhaps
October 14.55 according to my SatEvo analysis.
The latest OIG elset is:
Molniya-M r 210 x 165 km
1 24961U 97054B 97286.64762399 .04178239 86102-5 61138-3 0 747
2 24961 62.7847 202.5340 0034585 142.5632 217.7922 16.31992848 3017
and my evolution runs...
Molniya-M r 196 x 159 km
1 24961U 97054B 97286.95363231 .06815928 30426-1 72102-3 0 90744
2 24961 62.7836 201.2711 0028002 142.6265 217.5686 16.35592312 3069
Molniya-M r 185 x 155 km
1 24961U 97054B 97287.13688645 .09174743 59416-1 64572-3 0 90742
2 24961 62.7827 200.5113 0023182 142.6646 217.4967 16.38473523 3093
Molniya-M r 170 x 148 km
1 24961U 97054B 97287.31975385 .14815739 18158+0 50815-3 0 90746
2 24961 62.7813 199.7493 0017065 142.7029 217.4156 16.42679778 3126
Molniya-M r 153 x 139 km
1 24961U 97054B 97287.44133493 .28255403 79781+0 44579-3 0 90746
2 24961 62.7798 199.2394 0011290 142.7285 217.3498 16.47518745 3142
Molniya-M r 137 x 129 km
1 24961U 97054B 97287.50194630 .63859477 50948+1 48621-3 0 90740
2 24961 62.7785 198.9835 0006761 142.7415 217.3054 16.52437189 3153
The Iridium Delta 2 is now predicted to decay about October 15.7 and the
SL-12 aux motor about 4 days later. Latest elsets:
Iridm Delta r 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.6 d 253 x 172 km
1 24908U 97043F 97286.56968981 .02833507 -13819-5 79675-3 0 1502
2 24908 82.6147 344.2486 0061228 148.6184 211.8962 16.22532094 8455
SL-12 r (aux motor) 2512 x 109 km
1 21863U 92005H 97286.72320901 .13507849 10372-4 57096-3 0 2517
2 21863 64.1643 346.3606 1563093 203.7440 148.6835 12.87789074 92932
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/