Decay update : October 13

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 13 Oct 1997 23:57:03 +0100

The final elset for the Lewis LMLV-1 rocket is:
LMLV-1                                           136 x 124 km
1 24910U 97044B   97286.36781440  .30098568  28837-5  20207-3 0  1331
2 24910  97.4964 186.9378 0009254 226.4737 133.9156 16.53594977  8170
showing that it survived for longer than I had predicted 24h ago. It may
have decayed at around October 13.406 (09:45 UTC) on this rev.

The decaying Molniya-M rocket may also last a little longer, to perhaps
October 14.55 according to my SatEvo analysis.
The latest OIG elset is:
Molniya-M r                                      210 x 165 km
1 24961U 97054B   97286.64762399  .04178239  86102-5  61138-3 0   747
2 24961  62.7847 202.5340 0034585 142.5632 217.7922 16.31992848  3017
and my evolution runs...
Molniya-M r                                      196 x 159 km
1 24961U 97054B   97286.95363231  .06815928  30426-1  72102-3 0 90744
2 24961  62.7836 201.2711 0028002 142.6265 217.5686 16.35592312  3069
Molniya-M r                                      185 x 155 km
1 24961U 97054B   97287.13688645  .09174743  59416-1  64572-3 0 90742
2 24961  62.7827 200.5113 0023182 142.6646 217.4967 16.38473523  3093
Molniya-M r                                      170 x 148 km
1 24961U 97054B   97287.31975385  .14815739  18158+0  50815-3 0 90746
2 24961  62.7813 199.7493 0017065 142.7029 217.4156 16.42679778  3126
Molniya-M r                                      153 x 139 km
1 24961U 97054B   97287.44133493  .28255403  79781+0  44579-3 0 90746
2 24961  62.7798 199.2394 0011290 142.7285 217.3498 16.47518745  3142
Molniya-M r                                      137 x 129 km
1 24961U 97054B   97287.50194630  .63859477  50948+1  48621-3 0 90740
2 24961  62.7785 198.9835 0006761 142.7415 217.3054 16.52437189  3153

The Iridium Delta 2 is now predicted to decay about October 15.7 and the
SL-12 aux motor about 4 days later. Latest elsets:
Iridm Delta r    5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            253 x 172 km
1 24908U 97043F   97286.56968981  .02833507 -13819-5  79675-3 0  1502
2 24908  82.6147 344.2486 0061228 148.6184 211.8962 16.22532094  8455
SL-12 r (aux motor)                              2512 x 109 km
1 21863U 92005H   97286.72320901  .13507849  10372-4  57096-3 0  2517
2 21863  64.1643 346.3606 1563093 203.7440 148.6835 12.87789074 92932

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/