Iridium flare prediction

Jeremy Ollerenshaw (
Fri, 10 Oct 1997 08:58:08 -0700

Thanks to Randy John's Iridium flare prediction program, Skysat, I am
able to predict what should be about a mag -3 flare in the north at 26
deg elevation from mirror 2 of Iridium 5 (24795)at October 11 10:01:45
UT as viewed in the Atlanta area (33.981 N, 84.479 W). The mirror angle
is calculated to max out at 0.49 deg. 

Using a curve fit to the mirror angle and magnitude data points for all
Iridium flares noted in Ron Lee's list, a predicted magnitude can be
made. The data seems to fit a logarithmic curve quite well although I'm
not confident that this is a valid justification mathematically.
I would like to thank Randy John for providing this very useful program.

Jeremy Ollerenshaw
33.981 N, 84.489 W