Re: Decay of Progress M-36 Soyuz r (#25003)
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 8 Oct 1997 17:36:16 +0100
Ignoring elsets which were superceded, the final ones for this object
were:
Prog M-36 Soyuz r 173 x 160 km
1 25003U 97058B 97280.33869518 .08017942 12444-4 59564-3 0 160
2 25003 51.6450 242.0512 0009759 69.8311 290.3778 16.39623097 278
Prog M-36 Soyuz r 168 x 153 km
1 25003U 97058B 97280.46052074 .09108808 00000-0 45385-3 0 176
2 25003 51.6303 241.3696 0011424 65.9293 294.3629 16.41900924 299
Prog M-36 Soyuz r 163 x 154 km
1 25003U 97058B 97280.50178241 .09334978 12502-4 44733-3 0 175
2 25003 51.6388 241.1380 0006553 75.5344 168.9508 16.42743204 290
Prog M-36 Soyuz r 155 x 146 km
1 25003U 97058B 97280.67608796 .08968674 12597-4 21592-3 0 184
2 25003 51.6465 240.1385 0006567 70.3872 126.5633 16.45796307 322
which are respectively 0.07s late, 0.22s late, 0.91s early and
(about) 21s late as compared with the SatEvo-predicted evolution I
posted on the preceding day. The drag and mean motion terms in the last
elset appear anomalously low and, since the epoch is far from the
northbound equator crossing, these have a marked adverse effect on the
final residual which compares the implied crossing times indicated by
SatEvo and the OIG elset. Given the remarkably good fit of my
prediction over the final day, I suspect that decay occurred at about
October 7.74 (17:50 UTC), when it would have been ESE-bound
over the Pacific near 42 deg S and 180 deg E/W. However, this must be
uncertain by at least one hour.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/