Re: Decay of Progress M-36 Soyuz r (#25003)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 7 Oct 1997 08:15:36 +0100

The latest OIG elsets for this decaying object are
Prog M-36 Soyuz r                                192 x 172 km
1 25003U 97058B   97279.91129282  .04078263  12261-4  56255-3 0   114
2 25003  51.6417 244.4665 0014999  77.5473 282.7295 16.33932101   208
Prog M-36 Soyuz r                                185 x 168 km
1 25003U 97058B   97280.09464143  .05130614  12318-4  57311-3 0   121
2 25003  51.6476 243.4324 0012808  79.3464 280.9268 16.35987988   239
Prog M-36 Soyuz r                                180 x 164 km
1 25003U 97058B   97280.21671378  .06361447  12390-4  59090-3 0   133
2 25003  51.6477 242.7388 0011737  69.7978 290.3156 16.37660289   252

These show it running 0.4s, 0.7s and 0.7s late respectively against the
SatEvo evolution I posted yesterday. There is little change to my
prediction of decay at October 7.75 or to the predicted elsets I posted
earlier...

Prog M-36 Soyuz r                                171 x 158 km
1 25003U 97058B   97280.39960494  .09694534  71620-1  63245-3 0 90078
2 25003  51.6469 241.7034 0010096  72.9379 287.1726 16.40628819   285
Prog M-36 Soyuz r                                156 x 147 km
1 25003U 97058B   97280.58209196  .17473897  28971+0  46371-3 0 90070
2 25003  51.6455 240.6681 0006949  73.7097 286.3667 16.45274221   312
Prog M-36 Soyuz r                                149 x 142 km
1 25003U 97058B   97280.64278215  .25182190  66875+0  41553-3 0 90079
2 25003  51.6448 240.3219 0005518  73.9678 286.0929 16.47798368   320
Prog M-36 Soyuz r                                136 x 132 km
1 25003U 97058B   97280.70335369  .50898215  33829+1  41479-3 0 90071
2 25003  51.6437 239.9749 0003552  74.2266 285.8126 16.51994672   331

Incidentally, these predictions are from an initial elset which I
iterated to "fit" subsequent equator crossings by varying its mean
motion and ndot/2 terms; they were not derived solely by a SatEvo
evolution from the latest OIG elset.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
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