SatEvo decay list #16

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 17 Oct 1996 17:58:20 +0100

SatEvo decay list #16  (issued 1996 October 17)

Here are my latest SatEvo decay predictions, horribly bloated
by the 94-29 debris. As usual, the "Actual?" decay times are 
estimates based on the final available elements.

   #    Designation    Name               ------- Decay -------
                                          Predicted   Actual?

 23888   86- 17 KG  GFZ 1 deb                         October  3.9
 16982   86- 73 B   NOAA 10 deb                       October  4.3
 24457   94- 29 TE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                October  5
 24541   94- 29 WR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                October  8?
 24504   94- 29 VC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                October  9
  8074   66- 56 H   Pageos 1 deb                      October  9.2
 24404   92- 29 RH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                October  8.6
 24434   92- 29 SN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                October 10?
 13682   81- 28 BE  Cosmos 1260 deb                   October 10.97
 24558   94- 29 XJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                October 11
 24219   94- 29 KS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                October 11?
 23689   86- 17 JL  GFZ 1 deb                         October 11.0
 23869   96- 31 B   MSTI-3 Pegasus r                  October 11.15
 23856   86- 17 KF  GFZ 1 deb                         October 11.2
 24505   92- 29 VD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                October 13
 24413   92- 29 RS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                October 13.2
 24482   92- 29 UF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                October 14
 16889   86- 57 D   Molniya 1-67 SL-6 r2              October 14.76
 23946   96- 38 B   USA 125 Titan IV r                October 14.8
 21794   91- 79 F   SL-12 r aux motor                 October 14.94
 24160   94- 29 HK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 17.4
 23924   86- 17 LL  GFZ 1 deb             October 17.6
 12347   80- 30 V   Cosmos 1174 deb       October 21
 24063   94- 29 DL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 21
 24409   94- 29 RN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 21
 24509   94- 29 VH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 22
  5275   69- 82 HS  Thorad Agena D deb    October 23
 24507   94- 29 VF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 23
 24506   94- 29 VE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 24
 24056   94- 29 DD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 25
 23876   96- 32 D   PAMS/STU              October 30
 24514   94- 29 VN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 30?
 23903   86- 17 KW  GFZ 1 deb             October 31
 23984   94- 29 AE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    October 31
 24502   94- 29 VB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November  1
 24512   94- 29 VL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November  1
 24412   94- 29 RR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November  3
 24597   94- 29 YZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November  6
 24157   94- 29 HG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November  7
 24060   94- 29 DH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November  8 Note 1
 24105   94- 29 FC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November  8
 24416   94- 29 RV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November  8
 24047   94- 29 CU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November  9
 24200   94- 29 KB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 10
 24365   94- 29 PS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 10
 24407   94- 29 RL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 10
 24018   94- 29 BP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 11
 24479   94- 29 UC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 13
 24562   94- 29 XN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 14
 24351   94- 29 PC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 15
 24048   94- 29 CV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 16
 24031   94- 29 CC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 17
 24538   94- 29 WN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 17?
 24371   94- 29 PY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 18
 24461   94- 29 TJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 19
 24584   94- 29 YL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 20
 24593   94- 29 YV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb   November 20
 23053   89- 89 AY  COBE deb             November 23
 23566   86- 17 JH  GFZ 1 deb            November 27
 23932   86- 17 LS  GFZ 1 deb            November 29
  7047   73- 86 AP  Delta 1 deb          December  3
 22110   92- 58 C   Delta 2 r            December  5
 23476   83- 75 BC  Cosmos 1484 deb      December  6
  6895   73- 78 C   Delta 1 r1           December 12


Notes:

1. #24060 was incorrectly identified as 96- 29 DD last time.

2. In addition, the following STEP-2 Pegasus debris may decay 
between November 21 and December 15: 
Nov 22 #24468 = TR                Dec 3 #24026 = BX
    23 #24439 = SV                    4 #24410 = RP, #24431 = SK
    24 #24367 = PU, #24546 = WW       5 #24595 = YX
    27 #24027 = BY                    6 #24480 = UD
    28 #24462 = TK                    7 #24252 = MB
    29 #24011 = RQ, #24067 = DQ       8 #24356 = PH
                                      9 #24045 = CS
                                     10 #24530 = WE
                                     11 #24471 = TU
                                     12 #24570 = XW
                                     13 #24246 = LV, #24363 = PQ
                                     15 #24021 = BS

3. The perigee height of #23800 = 96-  5 E (Gorizont 31 
SL-12 deb) appears stable near 115 km. In this orbit, I 
predict its decay around the end of this year.


Bjoern Gimle maintains a WWW resource of decay information at
                http://www.algonet.se/~b_gimle/

Alan


-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
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