Re: 96038B

Alan Pickup (
Tue, 15 Oct 1996 07:30:11 +0100

In message <>, Ted Molczan
<> writes
>I derived the following elset from the same set of Pierre Neirinck's 
>points that Rainer Kracht analyzed earlier. I disregarded the 2nd point,
>because it had by far the greatest error. I held the inclination near
>its long-term mean value. I varied the eccentricity from zero through
>0.0005, which resulted in mean motion varying between about 16.38 and
>16.39 rev/d. The decay elements are speculative.
>USA 125 r        9.8  3.0  0.0  4.8 v
>1 23946U 96038  B 96288.21137905  .07000000  00000-0  62018-3 0    01
>2 23946  54.9800  37.2800 0002700 221.7481 211.7499 16.38420000    03
>Pierre searched half of the object's orbit on 13 Oct, then found it in
>the other half on 14 Oct. It was a very time-consuming task, but he was 
>rewarded with what probably will be the final sighting of this object 
>by hobbyists.

Yes, when I made my SatEvo evolution, I didn't have Pierre's detailed
obs, or his negative obs of the previous morning (the 13th) - just the
approximate position reported via Rainer. Pierre's three obs are not
consistent with my evolved orbit (or with the initial elset from
Pierre). Pierre's second elset (epoch 96288.44) leads to decay at
October 14.87, while both your (Ted) and Rainer's elsets suggest decay
at October 14.71 - hardly surprising since they all had ndot/2 of 0.07.

I watched this morning around the time (Oct 15 06:00 UT) predicted by
the evolution I posted yesterday - nothing seen of the object, but I'm
not too surprised.

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