SatEvo decay list #15 (issued 1996 October 2) Here are my latest SatEvo decay predictions. The "Actual?" decay times are estimated from the final available elements. # Designation Name ------- Decay ------- Predicted Actual? 24037 94- 29 CJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 21.0 24274 96- 45 B Molniya SL-6 r? September 21.38 4641 70- 25 Z Thorad Agena D deb September 21.8 23961 94- 29 J STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 22.69 24437 96- 58 C Ekspress Proton-K r2? September 27.55 23988 94- 29 AJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 27.6 23965 94- 29 N STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 27.7 24436 96- 58 B Ekspress Proton-K r September 29.65 23958 94- 29 F STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 29 24328 94- 29 ND STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 29 24327 94- 29 NC STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 30 24028 94- 29 BZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 30.45 23888 86- 17 KG GFZ 1 deb October 3.9 16982 86- 73 B NOAA 10 deb October 4.7 8074 66- 56 H Pageos 1 deb October 6? 24404 92- 29 RH STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 7 24434 92- 29 SN STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 10 24219 94- 29 KS STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 11 13682 81- 28 BE Cosmos 1260 deb October 12 23689 86- 17 JL GFZ 1 deb October 12 23869 96- 31 B MSTI-3 Pegasus r October 12 24413 92- 29 RS STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 12 21794 91- 79 F SL-12 r aux motor October 13 23856 86- 17 KF GFZ 1 deb October 13 24160 94- 29 HK STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 17 24409 94- 29 RN STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 17 23946 96- 38 B USA 125 Titan IV r October 19 23924 86- 17 LL GFZ 1 deb October 21 24063 94- 29 DL STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 21 24060 94- 29 DD STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 24 12347 80- 30 V Cosmos 1174 deb October 25 5275 69- 82 HS Thorad Agena D deb October 30 23876 96- 32 D PAMS/STU October 31 23984 94- 29 AE STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 31 23903 86- 17 KW GFZ 1 deb November 4 23566 86- 17 JH GFZ 1 deb November 24 23053 89- 89 AY COBE deb November 27 23932 86- 17 LS GFZ 1 deb November 27 6895 73- 78 C Delta 1 r1 November 29 23476 83- 75 BC Cosmos 1484 deb November 29 7047 73- 86 AP Delta 1 deb December 2 Notes: 1. In addition, the following STEP-2 Pegasus debris may decay during November: 23998, 24018, 24026, 24047, 24048, 24157, 24200, 24252, 24351, 24365, 24367, 24371, 24407, 24410, 24412, 24416, 24439 2. By October 2, the perigee height of #8074 = 66- 56 H (Pageos 1 deb H) was down to 253 km and that of #23800 = 96- 5 E (Gorizont 31 SL-12 deb) was around 115 km. My prediction that #8074 will decay about October 6 is no more than a guess. Bjorn Gimle maintains a WWW resource of decay information at http://www.algonet.se/~b_gimle/ Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224