RE: Fobos-Grunt: no manoeuvring evident in TLEs after 2011 Nov 20 UTC

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Mon Nov 28 2011 - 11:35:17 UTC

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    Manoeuvring was last evident in the USSTRATCOM TLE of epoch 11324.94169617. It appeared to have ended by the epoch
    11325.19110916 TLE, and appeared not to have resumed as of the epoch 11332.14290509 TLE (2011 Nov 28 03:26 UTC). 
    
    Updated orbit evolution for the period 11326.25097676 - 11332.14290509:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/phsrm/Fobos-Grunt_orbit_evolution_v8.pdf
     
    Assuming solar activity remains near the low end of normal, STOAG propagates the orbit to decay on 2012 Jan 14.
    Uncertainty +/- 9 days, based on the rule of thumb of 20% of time remaining until predicted decay.
     
    Ted Molczan
    
     
    
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