RE: Fobos-Grunt: no manoeuvring evident in TLEs after 2011 Nov 20 UTC

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Thu Nov 24 2011 - 12:57:17 UTC

  • Next message: Greg Roberts: "Optical 23 Nov 2011"

    A quick update of last night's report: ballistic flight continued through the epoch 11328.24537235 USSTRATCOM TLE.
    Manoeuvring ended sometime between the TLEs of epoch 11324.94169617 and 11325.19110916. Updated orbit evolution for the
    period 11325.19110916 - 11328.24537235:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/phsrm/Fobos-Grunt_orbit_evolution_v5.pdf
    
    Assuming solar activity remains near the low end of normal, STOAG propagates the orbit to decay on 2012 Jan 15.
    Uncertainty +/- 11 days, based on the rule of thumb of 20% of time remaining until predicted decay.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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