Re: R: Phobos-Grunt - serious problem reported

From: Paul Salanitri (paul.salanitri@gmail.com)
Date: Thu Nov 10 2011 - 00:31:21 UTC

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    New TLEs from Space-Track confirms that I was watching the shroud or launch
    vehicle #37873 (correct to the second).  Either Phobos-Grunt itself was too
    dim or the bright sparkling object diverted my attention long enough to
    miss the main #37872 part 82 seconds behind it.
    
     9h:24m:35s   654 315.89 17.57 Lit -16.0 19.580958977  27.947130634
    #37873
     9h:25m:57s   683 315.74 17.65 Lit -16.2 19.600617392  27.788177934
    PG#37872
    
    
    Paul S.
    
    On Wed, Nov 9, 2011 at 9:33 PM, Paul Salanitri <paul.salanitri@gmail.com>wrote:
    
    > Confirmed current Phobos-Soil track and time:
    >
    > [09 Nov 2011 UTC:]
    >
    > Prediction from pre-launch TLE:
    >  9h:26m:48s   710 315.46 17.08 Lit -16.4 19.569913810  28.010486185 PG
    >
    > Actual observed:
    > 09:24:35 315deg19' 17deg01' (next to star Beta1 Cyg)
    >
    > Visual track exactly as expected, however 2min13s early.
    >
    > (More detail (lat/long etc) available on request.)
    >
    > The object changed brightness a number of times, from invisible to about
    > mag 1 at times.
    >
    > Not sure if that would be the fairing or some other part- but only saw one
    > object.
    >
    > Paul Salanitri
    >
    >
    >
    > On Wed, Nov 9, 2011 at 7:45 PM, Paul Salanitri <paul.salanitri@gmail.com>wrote:
    >
    >> Just observed some part of Phobos-Grunt about 2 minutes early - passed a
    >> point at 09:24:40 when expecting it at 09:26:30 (from pre launch TLEs)
    >>
    >> Bright flares a couple of times - noted a close pass of a star - will
    >> have to go through a voice recording to work out precise time.
    >>
    >> Paul Salanitri
    >>
    >>
    >>
    >>
    >> On 09/11/2011, at 18:49, "satrack@libero.it" <satrack@libero.it> wrote:
    >>
    >> > I've updated the site to use the LEO parking orbit. Maybe this helps in
    >> the
    >> > attempt to find it.
    >> > DEC, RA and Magnitude are still displayed.
    >> >
    >> > http://digilander.libero.it/SATrack/Phobos.html?q=phobos
    >> >
    >> > Regards,
    >> > Simone
    >> >
    >> >> ----Messaggio originale----
    >> >> Da: ssl3molcz@rogers.com
    >> >> Data: 9-nov-2011 1.05
    >> >> A: <seesat-l@satobs.org>
    >> >> Ogg: Phobos-Grunt - serious problem reported
    >> >>
    >> >> I have just received word from the project that there seems to be a
    >> serious
    >> > problem.
    >> >>
    >> >> After the planned first burn of the engine, the spacecraft was not
    >> found in
    >> > the predicted orbit. Alternative radar
    >> >> observations preliminarily show that there are two objects in the
    >> orbit with
    >> > parameters the same as before the planned
    >> >> engine burn. Observers are requested to attempt to discover the
    >> spacecraft in
    >> > the initial LEO parking orbit.
    >> >>
    >> >> This is the official pre-launch estimated TLE of the LEO parking orbit:
    >> >>
    >> >> 1 55500U 11000A   11312.95486111 -.00010748  00000-0 -11606-4 0    14
    >> >> 2 55500  51.4279   0.6058 0106375  25.7555 298.8256 15.98414689    33
    >> >>
    >> >> I imagine that one of the two objects seen on the radar could be the
    >> final
    >> > stage of the booster. Accurate descriptions
    >> >> and counts of the number of objects seen, as well as position and time
    >> would
    >> > be useful.
    >> >>
    >> >> Ted Molczan
    >> >>
    >> >>
    >> >> _______________________________________________
    >> >> Seesat-l mailing list
    >> >> http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
    >> >>
    >> >
    >> >
    >> > _______________________________________________
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    >> > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
    >>
    >
    >
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