Re: Phobos-Grunt - serious problem reported

From: Carlos Bella (carlos.apodman@gmail.com)
Date: Wed Nov 09 2011 - 13:47:25 UTC

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    Only complementing my last post, the images below show the projected path of
    the probe for Umuarama:
    
    - *http://tinyurl.com/c2o78qh
    - **http://tinyurl.com/cdk6jvr
    
    
    Regards
    Carlos Bella*
    
    
    2011/11/9 Carlos Bella <carlos.apodman@gmail.com>
    
    > Here in Brazil some observers reported that they observed the probe in
    > the "illuminated phase" of the expected path.
    >
    > But one of my colleagues (called Heverton) that lives in the city of
    > Umuarama of state of Paraná (south of Brazil - *
    > http://tinyurl.com/umuarama* ), makes a report at 23:00 (UT) that saw two
    > objects in the orbit, in the own words:
    > *
    > "I saw, but I found odd. First I saw a point a little slow, but I think it was
    > the ISS. Then I saw Phobos and right behind it a point with a light a little
    > weaker. I think it was the remains of the rocket??
    > If my eyes not deceived me, I saw the light getting a little stronger at
    > the estimated time of ignition. Too bad I can do any record"*
    >
    > I asked more accurate details about the observation and today he wrote:
    > *
    > "Accurately I can not say anything, but I saw it from about 20:55:30 and
    > 20:57:00 (22:55:30 and 22:57:00 UT) . The brightness of the probe was greater
    > than the ISS shines normally, but much less bright than it was Jupiter.
    > The position, the best I can remember I tried to sketch with the help of
    > Stellarium*:"
    >
    > - http://twitpic.com/7cczec/full
    >
    >
    > Regards
    > Carlos Bella
    >
    >
    > 2011/11/8 Ted Molczan <ssl3molcz@rogers.com>
    >
    >> I have just received word from the project that there seems to be a
    >> serious problem.
    >>
    >> After the planned first burn of the engine, the spacecraft was not found
    >> in the predicted orbit. Alternative radar
    >> observations preliminarily show that there are two objects in the orbit
    >> with parameters the same as before the planned
    >> engine burn. Observers are requested to attempt to discover the
    >> spacecraft in the initial LEO parking orbit.
    >>
    >> This is the official pre-launch estimated TLE of the LEO parking orbit:
    >>
    >> 1 55500U 11000A   11312.95486111 -.00010748  00000-0 -11606-4 0    14
    >> 2 55500  51.4279   0.6058 0106375  25.7555 298.8256 15.98414689    33
    >>
    >> I imagine that one of the two objects seen on the radar could be the
    >> final stage of the booster. Accurate descriptions
    >> and counts of the number of objects seen, as well as position and time
    >> would be useful.
    >>
    >> Ted Molczan
    >>
    >>
    >> _______________________________________________
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    >>
    >
    >
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