STSS Demo rocket body alert

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Sat Nov 28 2009 - 16:34:00 UTC

  • Next message: Alberto Rango: "4542 SATOBS 27 NOV 2009."

    This is a re-send of a message sent hours ago.
    
    Russell Eberst confirms that the unid he observed on 2009 Nov 23 at
    17:45:47.85 UTC is roughly consistent with one of the search elements I
    concocted for 09052C / 35939:
    
    1 77008U          09268.59375003  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    02
    2 77008  60.0000  93.1549 0820000 203.8000 204.0000 14.38000000    06
    
    It was about 47 min early, but within about 1 deg of the predicted track,
    with allowance for Earth's rotation.
    
    Here is a revised elset that fits Russell's observation:
    
    STSS Demo r                                             179 X 1350 km
    1 77008U          09268.59375004  .00099000  00000-0  14488-3 0    09
    2 77008  59.7458  93.1549 0820000 203.8000 203.9525 14.37986414    09
    Arc 20090925.59-1123.74 WRMS resid 0.129 totl 0.126 xtrk
    
    I selected the rate of decay by trial and error to take out the time error,
    then performed a differential correction on Russell's observation and a
    synthetic one at the epoch of the elements, correcting only inclination and
    mean motion.
    
    The actual elements are likely to be quite a bit different, so a planar
    search would be required to recover it. I suggest beginning with +/- 30 min
    of time and +/- 5 deg track (after allowing for Earth's rotation).
    
    The object's standard visual magnitude is about 5 (1000 km, 90 deg phase
    angle).
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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