There are now almost 300 tles for the 60 objects that first showed up on Nov. 14. The mean motion for the payload and its rocket were approximately 14.13 revs/day. The mean motions for the debris objects range from 14.17 through 14.25 to about 14.34 revs/day. This seems like a fairly small "dispersion". So my theory (today) is that the rocket started its disposal/re-entry burn and burned for only a very short time and changed its mean motion from 14.13 to 14.25 revs/day. Then some time later, the rocket exploded. The main piece of the rocket (yet to be cataloged) would remain in a 14.25 revs/day orbit. When it is cataloged, it will have a much lower drag term compared to the 60 tiny pieces. The theory of multiple objects with different velocities (but the same energy) leaving from a single point could lead to orbits that intersect twice - once at that point of origin and again about one-half of an orbit later. But objects with higher or lower energies should be above or below the objects with the same energy at the point that is about one-half way around the orbit. Because I am extrapolating backwards in time from Nov. 14, 15, or 16 to Nov. 4 with tles that have non-zero and changing drag terms, the agreement among the extrapolated orbits on Nov. 4 is not very high. Many of these tles seem to go through the following two volumes in time and space: Nov. 4, from 15:55 to 16:05 UT - height 500 to 520 miles latitude 30 to 35 south, longitude 162 west. Nov. 4, from 17:00 to 17:10 UT - height 500 to 520 miles latitude 65 to 80 degrees north, longitude 40 east -20/+70 degrees. Note that the launch was at 13:53 UT and the disposal burn was scheduled for 15:44 UT. So 16:00 is only 16 minutes later than that. The predicted position for the rocket at 16:00 UT would have been: height 526 miles, latitude 28.9 south, longitude 161 west if no burn took place. However, there are a number of pieces that fit the 17:05 UT time better than the 16:00 UT time and only a few pieces that fit the 16:00 time better than the 17:05 time. Of course the 17:05 time is 81 minutes after the scheduled burn. Mike McCants ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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