Re: Decay Forecast FSW-3 3

From: Robert Holdsworth (robbonz1@xtra.co.nz)
Date: Tue Nov 09 2004 - 11:54:37 EST

  • Next message: Greg Roberts: "Obs 08 Nov 2004"

    Observation was attempted of a what should have been a good pass here at
    0511 on 10 November-   1611 on 9 November UTC -  in a dawning sky.
    
    Sky conditions were cloudy with intermittent breaks,and nothing was observed
    
    However I believe I can state with a reasonable degree of certainty  that
    decay does not appear to likely to have taken place near here  (which was
    not expected anyway.):  I consider conditions were such that a decay would
    have been likely to be noticeable through the breaks in cloud, even though
    less significant sightings were not.
    
    On the other hand in the circumstances no conclusions can be drawn from the
    non-sighting as to whether  it could have decayed earlier, though this does
    not seem likely.
    
    Every significant near-decayer passing by here in the last few months has
    been clouded out- I guess we can blame time of year and also the weak El
    Nino which does tend to bring northwesterlies and cloud here.  Frustrating!
    
    The addition to the list of an observer in Nelson, New Zealand is very
    welcome as we are at similar latitudes but with different weather conditions
    owing to topography, which will  have significant advantages in such
    situations as this..  I have already welcomed them directly, but may I take
    the opportunity to publicly welcome Steve and Bernadette.  We are gradually
    getting a network of people who can be alerted for local potential
    near-decay observations, including this one, though unfortunately in this
    case the timing was such that confirmation was sent late at night for an
    early morning pass.
    
    
    Robert Holdsworth
    Wainuiomata
    New Zealand
    41.261S
    147.948E
    103m
    UTC plus 13
    
    
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    From: "Harro Zimmer" <Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de>
    To: <Seesat-L@satobs.org>
    Sent: Tuesday, November 09, 2004 11:51 PM
    Subject: Decay Forecast FSW-3 3
    
    
    > Reort time 10:30 UTC
    >
    > 2004-039A (#28424) FSW-3 3
    >
    > SCC'S 12 HOURS BEFORE DECAY message - prepared Nov 09, 08:22 UTC -
    predicts
    > the decay on:
    >
    > 9 November, 20:44 UTC +/- 08 hours  (58.2°S, 136.4°E) descending over the
    Indian
    > Ocean.
    >
    > MPM+REENTRY delivers with the ELSETs 04313.969... - 04314.274... (SFX 125,
    ap 030)
    > the decay on:
    > 9 November, 19:52 UTC +/- 33 minutes (32.74°E, 293.62°E) ascending over
    the Atlantic.
    >
    > Remark: At this time we have again a strong magnetic storm. It may be
    influence the
    > further decay behaviour of FSW-3 3.
    >
    > Harro
    >
    > Harro Zimmer
    > Berlin, Germany
    >
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