Decay watch: 2003 Nov 21

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Nov 21 2003 - 15:08:14 EST

  • Next message: Daniel Deak: "Disco balls and fast flashers TLE, Nov. 21"

    Another couple of decayers, including Cosmos 389. From my updated Decay
    Watch page...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #4813 = 70-113 A = Cosmos 389
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 21 13:26     Nov 24 21:38 +-2d        78.5 S    72.9 E
    SatEvo     Nov 21 20:00     Nov 24 01:25 +-18h
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 389       5.0  1.5  0.0  5.4 v   12       222 x 215 km
    1 04813U 70113A   03325.54062680  .02071072 -93377-6  10763-2 0  9389
    2 04813  81.1049 233.9529 0005502 105.2742 254.9056 16.20287428792073
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: This enters eclipse near 79 deg N as it approaches norther apex
    above the Arctic. Eclipse exit occurs southbound near 55 deg S at
    about local midnight.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27778 = 03- 15 D = Cosmos 2397 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 21 08:12     Nov 22 02:50 +-13h       37.9 N   127.2 W
    SatEvo     Nov 21 19:35     Nov 21 23:29 +-3h        44.8 N    97.0 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2397 aux motor                            1727 x 98 km
    1 27778U 03015D   03325.69603329  .99999999  37150-4  24957-2 0  2423
    2 27778  47.2741 202.8849 1117003  78.6140 326.8604 13.94715523  5813
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 2397 aux motor                            1474 x 94 km
    1 27778U 03015D   03325.75964554 2.05944741  15155+1  32336-2 0 92420
    2 27778  47.2639 202.5978 0963353  78.8896 291.7781 14.32334637  5828
    Cosmos 2397 aux motor                            1274 x 92 km
    1 27778U 03015D   03325.82841792 2.45899285  26076+1  32288-2 0 92422
    2 27778  47.2527 202.2750 0836837  79.1994 290.1001 14.63171071  5832
    Cosmos 2397 aux motor                            1042 x 90 km
    1 27778U 03015D   03325.89557025 3.14689774  46547+1  33192-2 0 92429
    2 27778  47.2432 201.9437 0685295  79.5176 288.1271 15.00327228  5847
    Cosmos 2397 aux motor                            748 x 87 km
    1 27778U 03015D   03325.96075257 4.71654171  15506+2  35624-2 0 92420
    2 27778  47.2260 201.6019 0485891  79.8461 285.5976 15.49733165  5857
    
    Note: For my prediction yesterday, I would have been much better not
    to try to anticipate the effect of the geomagnetic storm. My new
    prediction is for this to decay following northern apex on the last
    of my SatEvo-predicted revs, nominally over South Dakota, USA. SCC
    has reentry a couple of revs later.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #28084 = 03- 35 C = Cosmos 2399 deb
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 20 22:55     Nov 22 14:42 +-1d        46.0 S   125.5 E
    SatEvo     No prediction at present
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2399 deb C                                267 x 190 km
    1 28084U 03035C   03324.78856847  .02853488  72629-5  13494-2 0   126
    2 28084  64.9123 203.9155 0058231  73.3620 287.5625 16.16774618   343
    
    Note: With only two elsets having been published for this, no SatEvo
    prediction is attempted
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23085 = 03- 35 D = Cosmos 2399 deb
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 21 02:05     Nov 22 01:46 +-15h       33.5 S    95.3 E
    SatEvo     No prediction at present
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2399 deb D                                268 x 182 km
    1 28085U 03035D   03324.78791904  .02978757  72978-5  11673-2 0   120
    2 28085  64.9090 203.9221 0064556  70.9376 289.8720 16.18026156   349
    
    Note: Again, only two elsets have appeared for this object.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23088 = 03- 35 G = Cosmos 2399 deb
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 21 13:33     Nov 24 05:48 +-2d        10.0 N    47.0 E
    SatEvo     No prediction at present
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2399 deb G                                285 x 194 km
    1 28088U 03035G   03324.79099747  .01367380  72063-5  80297-3 0    48
    2 28088  64.8650 203.8836 0068370  73.4439 287.4568 16.12741972   179
    
    Note: So far, this has only a single published elset.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
    
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    To unsubscribe from SeeSat-L, send a message with 'unsubscribe'
    in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@satobs.org
    List archived at http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Nov 21 2003 - 15:13:42 EST