STS 113 is scheduled for launch on 2002 Nov 23 UTC (Nov 22 EST).
Based on the latest ISS elements:
1 25544U 98067A 02324.51804089 .00032858 00000-0 41218-3 0 3984
2 25544 51.6375 348.0489 0013488 158.3931 356.4351 15.59321777228353
here are my predicted lift-off times for the six days beginning Nov 23 UTC:
Shuttle to ISS: Pad 39A Launch Time
Launch Coplanar Lift-off
Date UTC UTC
-----------------------------------
2002 Nov 23 01:17:46 01:15:21 (2002 Nov 22 20:15:21 EST)
2002 Nov 24 00:54:06 00:49:34 (2002 Nov 23 19:49:34 EST)
2002 Nov 25 00:30:27 00:27:03 (2002 Nov 24 19:27:03 EST)
2002 Nov 26 00:06:47 00:04:32 (2002 Nov 25 19:04:32 EST)
2002 Nov 26 23:43:07 23:38:45 (2002 Nov 26 18:38:45 EST)
2002 Nov 27 23:19:27 23:16:14 (2002 Nov 27 18:16:14 EST)
Assuming the ISS elements remain reliable on the dates in question, the predictions should be accurate to within a few seconds.
My lift-off prediction algorithm is statistically derived from past shuttle missions. It is accurate to within 2.5 s for 14 of the
last 18 shuttle missions to Mir and ISS, beginning with STS 86.
It is about 10 s early for STS 106 and 111. It is about 5 s early for the scrubbed STS 113 launch attempt of 2002 Nov 11 UTC. It
does not fit STS 88 and 101 very well, which apparently followed different launch-window rules.
Ted Molczan
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Nov 20 2002 - 11:46:41 EST