STS 113 lift-off time estimates

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Wed Nov 20 2002 - 11:39:33 EST

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    STS 113 is scheduled for launch on 2002 Nov 23 UTC (Nov 22 EST). 
    
    Based on the latest ISS elements:
    
    1 25544U 98067A   02324.51804089  .00032858  00000-0  41218-3 0  3984
    2 25544  51.6375 348.0489 0013488 158.3931 356.4351 15.59321777228353
    
    here are my predicted lift-off times for the six days beginning Nov 23 UTC:
    
    Shuttle to ISS: Pad 39A Launch Time
    
        Launch     Coplanar    Lift-off
         Date        UTC         UTC
    -----------------------------------
     2002 Nov 23   01:17:46    01:15:21  (2002 Nov 22 20:15:21 EST)
     2002 Nov 24   00:54:06    00:49:34  (2002 Nov 23 19:49:34 EST)
     2002 Nov 25   00:30:27    00:27:03  (2002 Nov 24 19:27:03 EST)
     2002 Nov 26   00:06:47    00:04:32  (2002 Nov 25 19:04:32 EST)
     2002 Nov 26   23:43:07    23:38:45  (2002 Nov 26 18:38:45 EST)
     2002 Nov 27   23:19:27    23:16:14  (2002 Nov 27 18:16:14 EST)
    
    Assuming the ISS elements remain reliable on the dates in question, the predictions should be accurate to within a few seconds.
    
    My lift-off prediction algorithm is statistically derived from past shuttle missions. It is accurate to within 2.5 s for 14 of the
    last 18 shuttle missions to Mir and ISS, beginning with STS 86. 
    
    It is about 10 s early for STS 106 and 111. It is about 5 s early for the scrubbed STS 113 launch attempt of 2002 Nov 11 UTC. It
    does not fit STS 88 and 101 very well, which apparently followed different launch-window rules.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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