Decay watch: 2002 November 16

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Nov 16 2002 - 16:49:39 EST

  • Next message: Alan Pickup: "SatEvo decay list #130"

    It appears that OIG's feed of official SCC decay predictions is stalled 
    at present, with nothing new to report since the 13th. I expect that 
    when (if?) it is restored we will find that two new decayers are being 
    predicted, #11156 and #22922. Fortunately, elsets are still flowing. The 
    following summary from my updated Decay Watch page includes my 
    predictions for these two objects, plus the Iridium rocket that decayed 
    earlier today.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #11156 = 78-117 B = Cosmos 1063 r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        (No prediction available)
    SatEvo     Nov 16 21:35     Nov 20 03:18 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1063 r    2.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v  8.6       216 x 208 km
    1 11156U 78117B   02320.67359103  .01418873 -95175-6  59848-3 0  8036
    2 11156  81.2144 328.9090 0006253 212.4034 147.6508 16.22932102312947
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs northbound near 18 deg N in the evening,
    with eclipse exit southbound near 43 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22922 = 93- 76 B = NATO 4B Delta 2 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        (No prediction available)
    SatEvo     Nov 16 21:20     Nov 18 07:52 +-12h        0.0     132.6 W
    
    Latest elset:
    NATO 4B r        5.9  2.4  0.0  5.5 d   13       247 x 184 km
    1 22922U 93076B   02320.61564760  .03876414 -15625-4  12554-2 0  1958
    2 22922  22.9952  56.6117 0048237 317.8193  41.8582 16.21537905449655
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: This enters eclipse northbound near 19 deg S in the evening and
    leaves eclipse near northern apex at 23 deg N in the evening.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27452 = 02- 31 C = Iridium 98 Breeze rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 13 17:33     Nov 16 17:46 +-2d        79.5 N    72.2 E
    SatEvo     Nov 16 21:10     Nov 16 14:25 +-20m       11.0 S   101.8 E
    
    Final elset:
    Irid 98 Brze r   5.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d  9.4       140 x 113 km
    1 27452U 02031C   02320.54235693  .25703787 -17084-5  12966-3 0  2591
    2 27452  86.5245  14.2850 0020956 125.6793 234.8583 16.54943364 23303
    
    Note: This decayed more quickly than I expected over the final few
    hours. I think decay was most likely towards the end of the above
    orbit while it was northbound to the S of Indonesia over the eastern
    Indian Ocean.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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