Decay watch: 2002 November 15

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Nov 15 2002 - 14:44:25 EST

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    Updates from my Decay Watch page...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26772 = 01- 20 C = USA 158 (GeoLITE) Delta 2 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 13 11:46     Nov 14 11:20 +-17h       13.8 N    42.2 W
    SatEvo     Nov 15 19:20     Nov 14 11:11 +-2h        10.9 N    47.9 W
    
    Final elset:
    USA 158 Delta 2 r2                               729 x 106 km
    1 26772U 01020C   02318.14660984  .97469910 -47465-5  16271-2 0   356
    2 26772  26.3845 152.8548 0458049 354.5456   4.6834 15.49841528  8111
    
    Note: No SSC decay predictions were posted during the final day of
    this object, and the final elset was very slow to appear. I show this
    decaying northbound just after crossing South America at the end of
    the SatEvo-predicted rev:
    USA 158 Delta 2 r2                               382 x 110 km
    1 26772U 01020C   02318.40036098 2.24836893  80398+1  28336-2 0 90358
    2 26772  26.3736 150.9683 0205603 357.7177   2.1898 16.10432203  8152
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27452 = 02- 31 C = Iridium 98 Breeze rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 13 17:33     Nov 16 17:46 +-2d        79.5 N    72.2 E
    SatEvo     Nov 15 19:35     Nov 16 18:50 +-8h         0.0      35.9 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Irid 98 Brze r   5.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d  9.4       209 x 149 km
    1 27452U 02031C   02319.56716524  .03884748 -14877-5  24199-3 0  2498
    2 27452  86.5412  14.8160 0045456  83.4312 277.1776 16.34969630 23147
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (ends)
    Irid 98 Brze r   5.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d  9.4       142 x 117 km
    1 27452U 02031C   02320.66419834  .24910681  55917+0  14944-3 0 92493
    2 27452  86.5348  14.2115 0019487  78.5159 281.7029 16.53664906 23329
    Irid 98 Brze r   5.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d  9.4       128 x 110 km
    1 27452U 02031C   02320.72464002  .48182857  25986+1  18741-3 0 92492
    2 27452  86.5337  14.1775 0013928  78.2399 281.9163 16.57710952 23334
    
    Note: As with #26772, no SCC prediction has been posted since the 13th.
    I predict that this will decay in the vicinity of the northbound
    equator crossing at the end of the final predicted elset above. This
    is close to Nairobi, Kenya.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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