Decay watch: 2002 November 11

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Nov 11 2002 - 15:21:41 EST

  • Next message: David Brierley: "DMB Obs Nov 11 a.m."

    The following summaries are of the latest updates to my Decay Watch page 
    - check the page for further predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26414 = 00- 42 A = Mightysat II.1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 11 19:10     Nov 12 00:53 +-4h        34.5 N   154.6 W
    SatEvo     Nov 11 19:50     Nov 12 00:43 +-90m       53.7 N   148.1 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Mightysat II.1   1.5  1.0  0.0  7.0 d  1.6       175 x 162 km
    1 26414U 00042A   02315.76561300  .13877651  26788-5  12391-2 0  1075
    2 26414  97.7473  82.6774 0009632 312.0355  47.9574 16.39039706128639
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Mightysat II.1   1.5  1.0  0.0  7.0 d  1.6       168 x 157 km
    1 26414U 00042A   02315.82661453  .21619281  37342+0  13026-2 0 91071
    2 26414  97.7465  82.7523 0008640 311.7831  48.1431 16.41354140128647
    Mightysat II.1   1.5  1.0  0.0  7.0 d  1.6       159 x 149 km
    1 26414U 00042A   02315.88752960  .31700195  90877+0  98882-3 0 91073
    2 26414  97.7455  82.8273 0007335 311.5300  48.4071 16.44513054128656
    Mightysat II.1   1.5  1.0  0.0  7.0 d  1.6       143 x 136 km
    1 26414U 00042A   02315.94829552  .70315159  59819+1  84249-3 0 91071
    2 26414  97.7437  82.9026 0005179 311.2761  48.6793 16.50006795128665
    
    Note: I show this decaying southbound over the Gulf of Alaska on the
    orbit after the final SatEvo-predicted one above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26772 = 01- 20 C = USA 158 (GeoLITE) Delta 2 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 11 11:16     Nov 14 08:00 +-2d        17.2 N    17.4 E
    SatEvo     Nov 11 19:40     Nov 15 10:43 +1.4d
    
    Latest elset:
    USA 158 Delta 2 r2                               2218 x 114 km
    1 26772U 01020C   02314.59443330  .16207178 -23599-4  80309-3 0   111
    2 26772  26.5215 173.5136 1393847 317.9993  32.4751 13.24940286  7614
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27408 = 02- 14 C = SZ 3 Module
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 11 19:23     Nov 12 06:54 +-8h        41.6 S   156.6 E
    SatEvo     Nov 11 20:00     Nov 12 06:31 +-4h         0.0      85.7 E
    
    Latest elset:
    SZ 3 Module      4.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 v   11       186 x 177 km
    1 27408U 02014C   02315.69348014  .07175461  88569-5  96918-3 0  7608
    2 27408  42.3885  58.4049 0006808 344.0118  16.0611 16.34258211 35327
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (ends)
    SZ 3 Module      4.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 v   11       155 x 149 km
    1 27408U 02014C   02316.12006452  .25788526  56398+0  75362-3 0 97604
    2 27408  42.3859  55.5399 0004060 347.3626  12.6271 16.45274761 35393
    SZ 3 Module      4.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 v   11       143 x 139 km
    1 27408U 02014C   02316.18069556  .46223643  20463+1  59343-3 0 97607
    2 27408  42.3850  55.1278 0003137 347.8446  12.1476 16.49367319 35405
    
    Note: I have this decaying near the southbound equator crossing over
    the Indian Ocean on the orbit following the final predicted rev above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27520 = 02- 42 F = DRTS rocket fairing 2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 11 15:57     Nov 12 02:32 +-7h        30.0 S   116.2 W
    SatEvo     Nov 11 20:10     Nov 12 06:34 +-4h         0.5 S   102.2 E
    
    Latest elset:
    DRTS r Fairng2   3.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   10       232 x 222 km
    1 27520U 02042F   02315.62979097  .07012155  15187+0  61666-2 0  1232
    2 27520  30.3926  76.1255 0007320  26.5740 333.5284 16.17199239  9727
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (ends)
    DRTS r Fairng2   3.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   10       173 x 169 km
    1 27520U 02042F   02316.18247507  .49675600  16725+1  43131-2 0 91230
    2 27520  30.3887  71.8733 0003482  33.2791 326.7427 16.38119452  9817
    DRTS r Fairng2   3.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   10       146 x 143 km
    1 27520U 02042F   02316.24324226 1.65526757  28891+2  29060-2 0 91231
    2 27520  30.3871  71.3941 0002078  34.0347 325.9785 16.48007606  9829
    
    Note: I estimate that this will decay near the southbound equator
    crossing on the final SatEvo orbit, above. This puts very close to
    Singapore. SCC has a much earlier decay.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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